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Potbelly (Potbelly) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) : $ (As of May. 01, 2024)


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What is Potbelly Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)?

As of today (2024-05-01), Potbelly's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Dividend model is $.

Note: Discounted Dividend model is only suitable for companies who have a consistant distribution history. If the company's dividends does not remain steady over a long period, results may not be accurate due to the low consistency. The model is also only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star) with dividend payments. If the company's Predictability Rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, or if the company does not pay dividend, the data will not be stored into our database.

Potbelly's Predictability Rank is 1-Star. Thus, this page is only used for demonstration purposes and the DCF related results in the screener and portfolio will appear as zero.

Margin of Safety % (DCF Dividends Based) using Discounted Dividend Model for Potbelly is

The historical rank and industry rank for Potbelly's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) or its related term are showing as below:

PBPB's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) is not ranked *
in the Restaurants industry.
Industry Median: 1.71
* Ranked among companies with meaningful Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) only.

Potbelly Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Potbelly's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Potbelly Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Chart

Potbelly Annual Data
Trend Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22 Dec23
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)
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Potbelly Quarterly Data
Mar19 Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22 Dec22 Mar23 Jun23 Sep23 Dec23
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only - - - - -

Competitive Comparison of Potbelly's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)

For the Restaurants subindustry, Potbelly's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based), along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Potbelly's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) Distribution in the Restaurants Industry

For the Restaurants industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, Potbelly's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Potbelly's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) falls into.



Potbelly Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Dividend Model with default parameters. The calculation method is the same as Discounted Cash Flow model except adjusted dividend are used in the calculation instead of free cash flow. This is the default method of calculation with GuruFocus DCF calculator.

Usually a two-stage model is used in calculating the intrinsic value with discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DDM calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 11%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. GuruFocus uses 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk-free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer. It is updated daily. The current risk-free rate is 4.69%. Please go to Economic Indicators page for more information. Please note that we use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the United States as default. Then we added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Dividend Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = %
The Growth Rate in the growth stage is initially set as the default 10-Year Dividend Growth Rate. In cases where the 10-year growth rate is unavailable, it defaults to using the 5-Year Dividend Growth Rate. If both the 10-year and 5-year growth rates are unavailable, the system defaults to the 3-Year Dividend Growth Rate.
However, it's important to note that there is a growth rate range. If the calculated growth rate exceeds 20%, it will be capped at 20%. Conversely, if the calculated growth rate falls below 5%, it will be adjusted to 5% to maintain a reasonable range.
=>

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Dividends per Share: adjusted dividends per share = $.
GuruFocus uses adjusted dividends per share by default to ensure that the valuation reflects the total value of the company, as the actual dividend is only a portion of the total value.

All of the default settings can be changed in the DCF calculator and the results are calculated automatically.

Potbelly's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) for today is calculated as:

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)=Dividends per Share*{[(1+g1)/(1+d)+(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10*[(1+g2)/(1+d)+(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+)/(1+0.11) =
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+)/(1+0.11) =

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)=Dividends per Share*{[x+x^2+...+x^10]+x^10*[y+y^2+...+y^10]}
=Dividends per Share*[x*(1-x^10)/(1-x)+x^10*y*(1-y^10)/(1-y)]
=*
=

Margin of Safety % (DCF Dividends Based) = (Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)-Current Price) /Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)
= ( - 10.18) /

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Potbelly  (NAS:PBPB) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book per Share, Graham Number, Median PS Value etc, discounted Dividends model evaluates the companies based on their power of future dividend distribution instead of their assets.


Be Aware

What you need to know about Discounted Dividends model:

1. The Discounted Dividends model evaluates a company based on its future dividends distribution power
2. Dividend growth is taken into account; therefore a company with a higher dividend growth rate is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies with consistently steady dividends distributed.
4. The Discounted Dividends model works poorly for inconsistent dividends distributor like high growth companies.
5. Your expected return from the investment is a reasonable discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less dividends distributed.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.


Potbelly Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Potbelly's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Potbelly (Potbelly) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Restaurants » Potbelly Corp (NAS:PBPB) » Definitions » Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
111 North Canal Street, Suite 325, Chicago, IL, USA, 60606
Potbelly Corp owns and franchises hundreds of limited-service restaurants specializing in sandwiches and salads, shakes. The menu includes toasty sandwiches, signature salads, soups, chili, sides, desserts, and, in breakfast locations it serves breakfast sandwiches and steel-cut oatmeal. Most of its locations are company-owned and located in the United States, with Illinois and Texas housing far more locations than any other state. The company has franchise partners in a number of countries. Excluding the United States, most of Potbelly's franchises are in the Middle East.
Executives
Robert D. Wright officer: President and CEO 111 N. CANAL STREET, SUITE 850, CHICAGO IL 60606
Steven Cirulis officer: SVP, Chief Financial Officer 111 N. CANAL ST., SUITE 850, CHICAGO IL 60606
Karen Lynette Mckee officer: SVP, Franchising C/O POTBELLY CORPORATION, 111 N. CANAL STREET, SUITE 325, CHICAGO IL 60606
Jeffrey Douglas officer: SVP, Chief Information Officer 111 N. CANAL STREET, SUITE 850, CHICAGO IL 60606
David Near director 111 N CANAL ST, SUITE 850, CHICAGO IL 60601
Adiya Dixon officer: SVP, CLO and Secretary 111 N CANAL, SUITE 850, CHICAGO IL 60606
Patrick James Walsh officer: Chief People Officer 410 N. MICHIGAN AVENUE, SUITE 400, CHICAGO IL 60611
Adam Noyes officer: SVP, Chief Operations Officer 111 N CANAL ST, SUITE 850, CHICAGO IL 60601
David T. Pearson director C/O VONAGE HOLDINGS CORP, 23 MAIN STREET, HOLMDEL NJ 07733
Jill Sutton director 313 IRON HORSE WAY, PROVIDENCE RI 02908
David Scott Daniels officer: CHIEF MARKETING OFFICER C/O POTBELLY CORPORATION, 111 N. CANAL STREET, SUITE 325, CHICAGO IL 60606
Larry Strain officer: CHIEF DEVELOPMENT OFFICER C/O POTBELLY CORPORATION, 111 N. CANAL STREET, SUITE 325, CHICAGO IL 60606
Todd Whitney Smith director 300 JOHNNY BENCH DRIVE, OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73104
Adrian M Butler director 111 NORTH CANAL STREET, SUITE 850, CHICAGO IL 60606
Joseph Boehm director 111 NORTH CANAL, SUITE 850, CHICAGO IL 60606