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Source Capital (Source Capital) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) : $182.81 (As of May. 01, 2024)


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What is Source Capital Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)?

As of today (2024-05-01), Source Capital's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Dividend model is $182.81.

Note: Discounted Dividend model is only suitable for companies who have a consistant distribution history. If the company's dividends does not remain steady over a long period, results may not be accurate due to the low consistency. The model is also only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star) with dividend payments. If the company's Predictability Rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, or if the company does not pay dividend, the data will not be stored into our database.

Source Capital's Predictability Rank is Not Rated. Thus, this page is only used for demonstration purposes and the DCF related results in the screener and portfolio will appear as zero.

Margin of Safety % (DCF Dividends Based) using Discounted Dividend Model for Source Capital is 77.30%.

The historical rank and industry rank for Source Capital's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) or its related term are showing as below:

SOR's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) is not ranked *
in the Asset Management industry.
Industry Median: 0.925
* Ranked among companies with meaningful Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) only.

Source Capital Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Source Capital's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Source Capital Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Chart

Source Capital Annual Data
Trend Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22 Dec23
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)
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Source Capital Semi-Annual Data
Dec17 Jun18 Dec18 Jun19 Dec19 Jun20 Dec20 Jun21 Dec21 Jun22 Dec22 Jun23 Dec23
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only - - - - -

Competitive Comparison of Source Capital's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)

For the Asset Management subindustry, Source Capital's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based), along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Source Capital's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) Distribution in the Asset Management Industry

For the Asset Management industry and Financial Services sector, Source Capital's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Source Capital's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) falls into.



Source Capital Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Dividend Model with default parameters. The calculation method is the same as Discounted Cash Flow model except adjusted dividend are used in the calculation instead of free cash flow. This is the default method of calculation with GuruFocus DCF calculator.

Usually a two-stage model is used in calculating the intrinsic value with discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DDM calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 11%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. GuruFocus uses 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk-free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer. It is updated daily. The current risk-free rate is 4.66%. Please go to Economic Indicators page for more information. Please note that we use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the United States as default. Then we added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Dividend Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 20%
The Growth Rate in the growth stage is initially set as the default 10-Year Dividend Growth Rate. In cases where the 10-year growth rate is unavailable, it defaults to using the 5-Year Dividend Growth Rate. If both the 10-year and 5-year growth rates are unavailable, the system defaults to the 3-Year Dividend Growth Rate.
However, it's important to note that there is a growth rate range. If the calculated growth rate exceeds 20%, it will be capped at 20%. Conversely, if the calculated growth rate falls below 5%, it will be adjusted to 5% to maintain a reasonable range.
=> Source Capital's average Dividend Growth Rate in the past 5 years was 23.70%, which is no less than 20%. GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 20%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Dividends per Share: adjusted dividends per share = $5.85.
GuruFocus uses adjusted dividends per share by default to ensure that the valuation reflects the total value of the company, as the actual dividend is only a portion of the total value.

All of the default settings can be changed in the DCF calculator and the results are calculated automatically.

Source Capital's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) for today is calculated as:

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)=Dividends per Share*{[(1+g1)/(1+d)+(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10*[(1+g2)/(1+d)+(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.2)/(1+0.11) = 1.0810810810811
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.11) = 0.93693693693694

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)=Dividends per Share*{[x+x^2+...+x^10]+x^10*[y+y^2+...+y^10]}
=Dividends per Share*[x*(1-x^10)/(1-x)+x^10*y*(1-y^10)/(1-y)]
=5.85*31.2501
=182.81

Margin of Safety % (DCF Dividends Based) = (Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)-Current Price) /Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)
= (182.81 - 41.50) / 182.81
= 77.30 %

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Source Capital  (NYSE:SOR) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book per Share, Graham Number, Median PS Value etc, discounted Dividends model evaluates the companies based on their power of future dividend distribution instead of their assets.


Be Aware

What you need to know about Discounted Dividends model:

1. The Discounted Dividends model evaluates a company based on its future dividends distribution power
2. Dividend growth is taken into account; therefore a company with a higher dividend growth rate is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies with consistently steady dividends distributed.
4. The Discounted Dividends model works poorly for inconsistent dividends distributor like high growth companies.
5. Your expected return from the investment is a reasonable discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less dividends distributed.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.


Source Capital Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Related Terms

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Source Capital (Source Capital) Business Description

Industry
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
11601 Wilshire Boulevard, Suite 1200, Los Angeles, CA, USA, 90025
Source Capital Inc is a diversified, closed-end management investment company. The investment objective of the company is to seek maximum total return for Common shareholders from both capital appreciation and investment income to the extent consistent with the protection of invested capital. Its investment portfolio includes a wide range of securities with a primary emphasis on common stock.
Executives
Korey Bauer officer: Vice President 2220 E. ROUTE 66, SUITE 226, GLENDORA CA 91740
Martin Dziura officer: Chief Compliance Officer 309 WOODRIDGE LANE, MEDIA PA 19063
Rita Dam officer: Treasurer 2220 EAST ROUTE 66, SUITE 226, GLENDORA CA 91740
Lyna Phan officer: Assistant Treasurer 2220 EAST ROUTE 66, SUITE 226, GLENDORA CA 91740
Diane J Drake officer: Secretary 2220 E. ROUTE 66, SUITE 226, GLENDORA CA 91740
Max Banhazl officer: Vice President 2220 E. ROUTE 66, SUITE 226, GLENDORA CA 91740
Amy Centurioni officer: Assistant Secretary 2220 E. ROUTE 66, SUITE 226, GLENDORA CA 91740
John Zader director 11601 WISHIRE BOULEVARD, SUITE 1200, LOS ANGELES CA 90025
Maureen A Quill director 11601 WILSHIRE BOULEVARD, SUITE 1200, LOS ANGELES CA 90025
Brian A. Selmo other: Officer of inv co's inv adv 11400 W. OLYMPIC BLVD., STE. 1200, LOS ANGELES CA 90064
Mark L. Lipson director 100 WILSHIRE BOULEVARD, SUITE 1200, SANTA MONICA CA 90401
Ryan A. Leggio other: Officer of inv co's inv adv 11601 WILSHIRE BLVD, SUITE 1200, LOS ANGELES CA 90025
Robert F Goldrich director LEON LEVY FOUNDATION, ONE ROCKEFELLER PLAZA, 20TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10020
Thomas H Atteberry other: partner of inv co's inv adv 11400 W OLYMPIC BLVD, STE 1200, LOS ANGELES CA 90064
Mark Landecker other: Officer of inv co's inv adv 11400 W. OLYMPIC BLVD., STE. 1200, LOS ANGELES CA 90064