Note: Discounted Earnings model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.
The First Marblehead's Predictability Rank is Not Rated. Thus, this page is only used for demonstration purposes and the DCF related results in the screener and portfolio will appear as zero.
The historical rank and industry rank for The First Marblehead's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) or its related term are showing as below:
FMD's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) is not ranked *
in the Credit Services industry.
Industry Median: 0.62 * Ranked among companies with meaningful Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) only.
The First Marblehead Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Historical Data
The historical data trend for The First Marblehead's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be seen below:
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
* Premium members only.
The First Marblehead Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Chart
Competitive Comparison of The First Marblehead's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)
For the Credit Services subindustry, The First Marblehead's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based), along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
The First Marblehead's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) Distribution in the Credit Services Industry
For the Credit Services industry and Financial Services sector, The First Marblehead's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where The First Marblehead's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) falls into.
The First Marblehead Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Calculation
This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Earnings model with default parameters. The calculation method is the same as Discounted Cash Flow model except earnings are used in the calculation instead of free cash flow. This is the default method of calculation with GuruFocus DCF calculator.
Usually a two-stage model is used in calculating the intrinsic value with discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.
GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:
1. Discount Rate: d = 11% A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. GuruFocus uses 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk-free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer. It is updated daily. The current risk-free rate is 4.48%. Please go to Economic Indicators page for more information. Please note that we use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the United States as default. Then we added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.
2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 5%
The Growth Rate in the growth stage is initially set as the default 10-Year EPS without NRI Growth Rate. In cases where the 10-year growth rate is unavailable, it defaults to using the 5-Year EPS without NRI Growth Rate. If both the 10-year and 5-year growth rates are unavailable, the system defaults to the 3-Year EPS without NRI Growth Rate.
However, it's important to note that there is a growth rate range. If the calculated growth rate exceeds 20%, it will be capped at 20%. Conversely, if the calculated growth rate falls below 5%, it will be adjusted to 5% to maintain a reasonable range.
=>
The First Marblehead's average EPS without NRI Growth Rate in the past
3 years was 0.00%,
which is less than 5%. GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 5%
3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10
4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%
5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10
6. EPS without NRI: eps without nri = $-2.430. GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, EPS without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.
All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.
The First Marblehead's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) for today is calculated as:
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
The First Marblehead (NYSE:FMD) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Explanation
Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book Value per Share, Graham Number, Median Ratio etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.
Be Aware
What you need to know about Discounted Earnings model:
1. The Discounted Earnings model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that are relatively consistent performers.
4. The Discounted Earnings model works poorly for inconsistent performers like cyclicals.
5. Your expected return from the investment is a reasonable discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.
You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.
The First Marblehead Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Related Terms
Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of The First Marblehead's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.
The First Marblehead (The First Marblehead) Business Description
The First Marblehead Corp was formed as a limited partnership in 1991 and was incorporated in Delaware in August 1994. It is a specialty finance company focused on the education financing marketplace in the United States. It provides loan programs on behalf of its lender clients for K-12, undergraduate and graduate students and for college graduates seeking to refinance private education loan obligations, as well as tuition planning, tuition billing, refund management and payment technology services. It provides a fully integrated suite of services through its Monogram loan product service platform, which it refer to as its Monogram platform, as well as certain services on a stand-alone, fee-for-service basis. These loan programs are designed to be marketed to prospective student borrowers and their families directly or through educational institutions and to generate portfolios which might be held by the originating lender or financed in the capital markets. It offers a fully integrated suite of services, including its new Monogram loan product, as well as certain services on a standalone, fee-for-service basis. In addition, it provides administrative and other services to securitization trusts that it has facilitated and asset servicing to the third-party owner of certain securitization trusts. The Company's bank subsidiary, Union Federal Savings Bank is a federally chartered thrift that offers residential and commercial mortgage loans, and certain other banking products. Through its Monogram product offering, it enables lenders to offer borrowers private education loans with competitive terms and clear pricing alternatives, but which are also structured to align product options made available to qualified applicants with their credit risk. The Monogram product integrates all of its service offerings, including program design, marketing support, loan origination and portfolio management. The product enables its lender clients to customize their loan programs to meet their risk control and return objectives without a third-party guaranty. Specifically, the client could customize the range of loan terms offered to their qualified applicants, such as repayment options, loan limits and borrower pricing. The Monogram product is based on its proprietary origination risk score model, which was independently reviewed by a credit bureau. It helps clients design their private education loan programs. The Company's design approach begins with a standard set of pricing options, legal agreements and third-party relationships that it could then customize for its clients in order to satisfy their particular needs. The Company's systems have been designed to provide applicants with consumer protection disclosures required by law and regulation, as well as information helpful for making informed decisions about private education loans. It operates in a competitive environment.FIRSTMARBLEHEAD, the checkered logo, MONOGRAM, MONTICELLO STUDENT LOA
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