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Nutraceutical International (Nutraceutical International) Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) : $21.45 (As of May. 05, 2024)


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What is Nutraceutical International Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)?

As of today (2024-05-05), Nutraceutical International's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model is $21.45.

Note: Discounted Cash Flow model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.

Nutraceutical International's Predictability Rank is Not Rated. Thus, this page is only used for demonstration purposes and the DCF related results in the screener and portfolio will appear as zero.

Margin of Safety (FCF Based) using Discounted Cash Flow model for Nutraceutical International is -94.87%.

The industry rank for Nutraceutical International's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) or its related term are showing as below:

NUTR's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) is not ranked *
in the Consumer Packaged Goods industry.
Industry Median: 0.975
* Ranked among companies with meaningful Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) only.

Nutraceutical International Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Nutraceutical International's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Nutraceutical International Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Chart

Nutraceutical International Annual Data
Trend Sep07 Sep08 Sep09 Sep10 Sep11 Sep12 Sep13 Sep14 Sep15 Sep16
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)
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Nutraceutical International Quarterly Data
Sep12 Dec12 Mar13 Jun13 Sep13 Dec13 Mar14 Jun14 Sep14 Dec14 Mar15 Jun15 Sep15 Dec15 Mar16 Jun16 Sep16 Dec16 Mar17 Jun17
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only - - - - -

Competitive Comparison of Nutraceutical International's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

For the Packaged Foods subindustry, Nutraceutical International's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based), along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Nutraceutical International's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) Distribution in the Consumer Packaged Goods Industry

For the Consumer Packaged Goods industry and Consumer Defensive sector, Nutraceutical International's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Nutraceutical International's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) falls into.



Nutraceutical International Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model with default parameters. In a discounted cash flow model, the future cash flow is estimated based on a cash flow growth rate and a discount rate. The cash flow of the future is discounted to its current value at the discount rate. All of the discounted future cash flow is added together to get the current intrinsic value of the company.

Usually a two-stage model is used when calculating a stock's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called the growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 11%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. GuruFocus uses 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk-free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer. It is updated daily. The current risk-free rate is 4.50%. Please go to Economic Indicators page for more information. Please note that we use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the United States as default. Then we added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 5%
The Growth Rate in the growth stage is initially set as the default 10-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share). In cases where the 10-year growth rate is unavailable, it defaults to using the 5-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share). If both the 10-year and 5-year growth rates are unavailable, the system defaults to the 3-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share).
However, it's important to note that there is a growth rate range. If the calculated growth rate exceeds 20%, it will be capped at 20%. Conversely, if the calculated growth rate falls below 5%, it will be adjusted to 5% to maintain a reasonable range.
=> Nutraceutical International's average Free Cash Flow Growth Rate in the past 3 years was 0.00%, which is less than 5%. GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 5%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10

6. Free Cash Flow per Share: fcf = $1.859.
However, GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, the EPS without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.

All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.

Nutraceutical International's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) for today is calculated as

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)=Free Cash Flow per Share*{[(1+g1)/(1+d)+(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10*[(1+g2)/(1+d)+(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.05)/(1+0.11) = 0.94594594594595
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.11) = 0.93693693693694

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)=Free Cash Flow per Share*{[x+x^2+...+x^10]+x^10*[y+y^2+...+y^10]}
=Free Cash Flow per Share*[x*(1-x^10)/(1-x)+x^10*y*(1-y^10)/(1-y)]
=1.859*11.5406
=21.45

Margin of Safety (FCF Based)=(Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)-Current Price)/Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)
=(21.45-41.80)/21.45
=-94.87 %

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Nutraceutical International  (NAS:NUTR) Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book per Share, Graham Number, Median PS Value etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.


Be Aware

What you need to know about the DCF model:

1. The DCF model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that have relatively consistent performance.
4. The DCF model works poorly for inconsistent performers such as cyclicals.
5. What discount rate should you use? Your expected return from the investment is a good discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.


Nutraceutical International Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Related Terms

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Nutraceutical International (Nutraceutical International) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
Nutraceutical International Corp was incorporated in Delaware in 1993. The Company is a manufacturer, marketer, distributor and retailer of branded nutritional supplements and other natural products sold to and through domestic health and natural food stores. Internationally, it markets and distributes branded nutritional supplements and other natural products to and through health and natural product distributors and retailers. Its core business is to acquire, integrate and operate businesses in the natural products industry that manufacture, market and distribute branded nutritional supplements. The Company manufactures and sells nutritional supplements and other natural products under numerous brands, including Solaray, KAL, Dynamic Health, Nature's Life, LifeTime, Natural Balance, NaturalCare, Health from the Sun, Pioneer, Nutra BioGenesis, Life-flo, Organix South, Heritage Store and Monarch Nutraceuticals. It owns neighborhood natural food markets, which operates under the trade names The Real Food Company, Thom's Natural Foods, Cornucopia Community Market and Granola's. It also owns health food stores, which operates under various trade names, including Fresh Vitamins and Peachtree Natural Foods. The Company's products includes vitamins and minerals, herbs, specialty formulas, personal care products, liquid nutritional products, homeopathics, functional foods and other products.
Executives
J Kimo Esplin director C/O NUTRACEUTICAL INTERNATIONAL CORP, 1400 KEARNS BLVD, PARK CITY UT 84060
Bain Capital Investors Llc 10 percent owner 200 CLARENDON STREET, BOSTON MA 02116
Bain Capital Fund Iv Lp 10 percent owner C/O BAIN CAPITAL LLC, TWO COPLEY PLACE, BOSTON MA 02199
Bcip Trust Associates Lp 10 percent owner C/O BAIN CAPITAL LLC, 111 HUNINGTON AVENUE, BOSTON MA 02199
Robert C Gay director C/O BAIN CAPITAL INC TWO COPLEY PLACE, BOSTON MA 02116
Matthew S Levin director BAIN CAPITAL PARTNERS LLC JOHN HANCOCK TOWER, 200 CLARENDON STREET BOSTON MA 02116
Associates Bcip 10 percent owner

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