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XenoPort (XenoPort) Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) : $-13.33 (As of May. 05, 2024)


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What is XenoPort Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)?

As of today (2024-05-05), XenoPort's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model is $-13.33.

Note: Discounted Cash Flow model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.

XenoPort's Predictability Rank is Not Rated. Thus, this page is only used for demonstration purposes and the DCF related results in the screener and portfolio will appear as zero.

Margin of Safety (FCF Based) using Discounted Cash Flow model for XenoPort is N/A.

The industry rank for XenoPort's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) or its related term are showing as below:

XNPT's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) is not ranked *
in the Biotechnology industry.
Industry Median: 1.955
* Ranked among companies with meaningful Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) only.

XenoPort Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for XenoPort's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

XenoPort Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Chart

XenoPort Annual Data
Trend Dec06 Dec07 Dec08 Dec09 Dec10 Dec11 Dec12 Dec13 Dec14 Dec15
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)
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XenoPort Quarterly Data
Jun11 Sep11 Dec11 Mar12 Jun12 Sep12 Dec12 Mar13 Jun13 Sep13 Dec13 Mar14 Jun14 Sep14 Dec14 Mar15 Jun15 Sep15 Dec15 Mar16
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only - - - - -

Competitive Comparison of XenoPort's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

For the Biotechnology subindustry, XenoPort's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based), along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


XenoPort's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) Distribution in the Biotechnology Industry

For the Biotechnology industry and Healthcare sector, XenoPort's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where XenoPort's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) falls into.



XenoPort Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model with default parameters. In a discounted cash flow model, the future cash flow is estimated based on a cash flow growth rate and a discount rate. The cash flow of the future is discounted to its current value at the discount rate. All of the discounted future cash flow is added together to get the current intrinsic value of the company.

Usually a two-stage model is used when calculating a stock's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called the growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 11%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. GuruFocus uses 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk-free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer. It is updated daily. The current risk-free rate is 4.50%. Please go to Economic Indicators page for more information. Please note that we use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the United States as default. Then we added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 5%
The Growth Rate in the growth stage is initially set as the default 10-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share). In cases where the 10-year growth rate is unavailable, it defaults to using the 5-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share). If both the 10-year and 5-year growth rates are unavailable, the system defaults to the 3-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share).
However, it's important to note that there is a growth rate range. If the calculated growth rate exceeds 20%, it will be capped at 20%. Conversely, if the calculated growth rate falls below 5%, it will be adjusted to 5% to maintain a reasonable range.
=> XenoPort's average Free Cash Flow Growth Rate in the past 3 years was 0.00%, which is less than 5%. GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 5%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10

6. Free Cash Flow per Share: fcf = $-1.155.
However, GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, the EPS without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.

All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.

XenoPort's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) for today is calculated as

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)=Free Cash Flow per Share*{[(1+g1)/(1+d)+(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10*[(1+g2)/(1+d)+(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.05)/(1+0.11) = 0.94594594594595
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.11) = 0.93693693693694

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)=Free Cash Flow per Share*{[x+x^2+...+x^10]+x^10*[y+y^2+...+y^10]}
=Free Cash Flow per Share*[x*(1-x^10)/(1-x)+x^10*y*(1-y^10)/(1-y)]
=-1.155*11.5406
=-13.33

Margin of Safety (FCF Based)=(Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)-Current Price)/Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)
=(-13.33-7.07)/-13.33
=N/A

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


XenoPort  (NAS:XNPT) Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book per Share, Graham Number, Median PS Value etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.


Be Aware

What you need to know about the DCF model:

1. The DCF model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that have relatively consistent performance.
4. The DCF model works poorly for inconsistent performers such as cyclicals.
5. What discount rate should you use? Your expected return from the investment is a good discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.


XenoPort Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of XenoPort's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


XenoPort (XenoPort) Business Description

Industry
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
XenoPort Inc is a Delaware corporation was incorporated on May 19, 1999. The Company is a biopharmaceutical company focused on developing and commercializing a portfolio of internally discovered product candidates for the potential treatment of neurological and other disorders. Its product candidates are prodrugs that are created by modifying the chemical structure of currently marketed drugs, referred to as parent drugs, and are designed to correct limitations in the oral absorption, distribution and metabolism of the parent drug. Its marketed product is approved in the United States, where it is known as Horizant Extended-Release Tablets, and in Japan, where it is known as Regnite Extended-Release Tablets. Horizant has been approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration, or FDA, for the treatment of moderate-to-severe primary restless legs syndrome, or RLS, in adults and for the management of postherpetic neuralgia, or PHN, in adults. Restless legs syndrome, also known as Willis-Ekbom Disease, is a neurological disorder characterized by an urge to move the legs, usually caused or accompanied by uncomfortable and unpleasant sensations in the legs. PHN is a neuropathic pain syndrome that can follow the healing of an outbreak of herpes zoster, commonly known as shingles. Regnite has been approved by the Japanese Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare, or MHLW, as a treatment for patients with moderate-to-severe RLS. It is also engaged with third parties for the development of arbaclofen placarbil, or AP, a potential treatment for spasticity in patients with spinal cord injury; and XP21279, a potential treatment for patients with advanced idiopathic Parkinson's disease. The Company faces competition from manufacturers of generic drugs. The Company is subject to regulation by regional, national, state and local agencies, including the Department of Justice, the Federal Trade Commission, the Office of Inspector General of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services and other regulatory bodies, as well as governmental authorities in those foreign countries in which it may commercialize its products.
Executives
William Jl Rieflin director NGM BIOPHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 333 OYSTER POINT BLVD., SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Cathy Friedman director C/O INNOVIVA, INC., 2000 SIERRA POINT PARKWAY, SUITE 500, BRISBANE CA 94005
Wendall Wierenga director 12790 EL CAMINO REAL, C/O NEUROCRINE BIOSCIENCES, SAN DIEGO CA 92130
Dennis M Fenton director
William G Harris officer: See Remarks C/O XENOPORT, INC., 3410 CENTRAL EXPRESSWAY, SANTA CLARA CA 95051
Jeryl L Hilleman director C/O INTERSECT ENT, INC., 1555 ADAMS DRIVE, MENLO PARK CA 94025
John Gordon Freund director 125 UNIVERSITY AVE., C/O SKYLINE VENTURES, PALO ALTO CA 94301
Paul L Berns director 11080 CIRCLEPOINT RD., STE, 200, WESTMINSTER CO 80020
Deerfield International Master Fund, L.p. 10 percent owner, other: Possible Member of 10% Group 780 THIRD AVENUE, 37TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017
Deerfield Management Company, L.p. (series C) 10 percent owner, other: Possible Member of 10% Group 345 PARK AVENUE SOUTH, 12TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10010
James E Flynn 10 percent owner, other: Possible Member of 10% Group 780 THIRD AVENUE, 37TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017
Deerfield Partners, L.p. 10 percent owner, other: Possible Member of 10% Group 345 PARK AVENUE SOUTH, 12TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10010
Deerfield Mgmt L.p. 10 percent owner, other: Possible Member of 10% Group 780 THIRD AVENUE, 37TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017
Deerfield Special Situations Fund, L.p. 10 percent owner, other: Possible Member of 10% Group 780 3RD AVENUE, 37TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017
Ronald W Barrett director, officer: Chief Executive Officer C/O XENOPORT, INC., 3410 CENTRAL EXPRESSWAY, SANTA CLARA CA 95051

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