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The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:
An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.
Good Sign:
Beneish M-Score -2.41 no higher than -1.78, which implies that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.
The historical rank and industry rank for Advance Auto Parts's Beneish M-Score or its related term are showing as below:
During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of Advance Auto Parts was -0.41. The lowest was -2.72. And the median was -2.59.
The historical data trend for Advance Auto Parts's Beneish M-Score can be seen below:
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
Advance Auto Parts Annual Data | |||||||||||||||||||||
Trend | Dec14 | Dec15 | Dec16 | Dec17 | Dec18 | Dec19 | Dec20 | Dec21 | Dec22 | Dec23 | |||||||||||
Beneish M-Score | Get a 7-Day Free Trial | -2.47 | -2.61 | -2.67 | -2.72 | -2.41 |
Advance Auto Parts Quarterly Data | ||||||||||||||||||||
Mar19 | Jun19 | Sep19 | Dec19 | Mar20 | Jun20 | Sep20 | Dec20 | Mar21 | Jun21 | Sep21 | Dec21 | Mar22 | Jun22 | Sep22 | Dec22 | Mar23 | Jun23 | Sep23 | Dec23 | |
Beneish M-Score | Get a 7-Day Free Trial | -2.72 | -2.68 | -2.60 | -2.49 | -2.41 |
For the Specialty Retail subindustry, Advance Auto Parts's Beneish M-Score, along with its competitors' market caps and Beneish M-Score data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
For the Retail - Cyclical industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, Advance Auto Parts's Beneish M-Score distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Advance Auto Parts's Beneish M-Score falls into.
The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Altman Z-Score) or business trend (Piotroski F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.
The M-Score Variables:
The M-score of Advance Auto Parts for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:
M | = | -4.84 | + | 0.92 * DSRI | + | 0.528 * GMI | + | 0.404 * AQI | + | 0.892 * SGI | + | 0.115 * DEPI |
= | -4.84 | + | 0.92 * 1.1559 | + | 0.528 * 1.1052 | + | 0.404 * 0.9753 | + | 0.892 * 1.0119 | + | 0.115 * 0.9164 | |
- | 0.172 * SGAI | + | 4.679 * TATA | - | 0.327 * LVGI | |||||||
- | 0.172 * 1.0279 | + | 4.679 * -0.022322 | - | 0.327 * 1.0228 | |||||||
= | -2.41 |
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
This Year (Dec23) TTM: | Last Year (Dec22) TTM: |
Total Receivables was $800 Mil. Revenue was 2464.869 + 2719.079 + 2686.066 + 3417.594 = $11,288 Mil. Gross Profit was 920.964 + 986.659 + 1148.069 + 1470.663 = $4,526 Mil. Total Current Assets was $6,377 Mil. Total Assets was $12,276 Mil. Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $4,227 Mil. Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $306 Mil. Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $4,426 Mil. Total Current Liabilities was $5,307 Mil. Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was $4,002 Mil. Net Income was -60.51 + -48.633 + 85.362 + 42.651 = $19 Mil. Non Operating Income was 5.731 + -1.216 + 1.684 + -0.674 = $6 Mil. Cash Flow from Operations was 256.971 + 194.963 + 214.306 + -378.865 = $287 Mil. |
Total Receivables was $684 Mil. Revenue was 2473.745 + 2641.341 + 2665.426 + 3374.21 = $11,155 Mil. Gross Profit was 1072.295 + 1179.247 + 1185.719 + 1506.52 = $4,944 Mil. Total Current Assets was $6,015 Mil. Total Assets was $11,986 Mil. Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $4,298 Mil. Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $284 Mil. Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $4,256 Mil. Total Current Liabilities was $5,421 Mil. Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was $3,467 Mil. |
1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index
Measured as the ratio of Revenue in Total Receivables in year t to year t-1.
A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.
DSRI | = | (Receivables_t / Revenue_t) | / | (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) |
= | (800.141 / 11287.608) | / | (684.048 / 11154.722) | |
= | 0.070887 | / | 0.061324 | |
= | 1.1559 |
2. GMI = Gross Margin Index
Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.
Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.
GMI | = | GrossMargin_t-1 | / | GrossMargin_t |
= | (GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) | / | (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t) | |
= | (4943.781 / 11154.722) | / | (4526.355 / 11287.608) | |
= | 0.443201 | / | 0.401002 | |
= | 1.1052 |
3. AQI = Asset Quality Index
AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.
Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than Property, Plant and Equipment to Total Assets.
AQI | = | (1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) | / | (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1) |
= | (1 - (6377.021 + 4227.322) / 12276.326) | / | (1 - (6014.817 + 4297.829) / 11986.447) | |
= | 0.136196 | / | 0.139641 | |
= | 0.9753 |
4. SGI = Sales Growth Index
Ratio of Revenue in year t to sales in year t-1.
Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.
SGI | = | Sales_t | / | Sales_t-1 |
= | Revenue_t | / | Revenue_t-1 | |
= | 11287.608 | / | 11154.722 | |
= | 1.0119 |
5. DEPI = Depreciation Index
Measured as the ratio of the rate of Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.
DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.
DEPI | = | (Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) | / | (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t)) |
= | (283.8 / (283.8 + 4297.829)) | / | (306.454 / (306.454 + 4227.322)) | |
= | 0.061943 | / | 0.067594 | |
= | 0.9164 |
Note: If the Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization data is not available, we assume that the depreciation rate is constant and set the Depreciation Index to 1.
6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index
The ratio of Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) to Sales in year t relative to year t-1.
SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.
SGAI | = | (SGA_t / Sales_t) | / | (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1) |
= | (4426.4 / 11287.608) | / | (4255.536 / 11154.722) | |
= | 0.392147 | / | 0.381501 | |
= | 1.0279 |
7. LVGI = Leverage Index
The ratio of total debt to Total Assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.
An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase in leverage
LVGI | = | ((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) | / | ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1) |
= | ((4002.127 + 5307.405) / 12276.326) | / | ((3466.601 + 5420.851) / 11986.447) | |
= | 0.758332 | / | 0.741458 | |
= | 1.0228 |
8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets
Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.
TATA | = | (IncomefromContinuingOperations_t | - | CashFlowsfromOperations_t) | / | TotalAssets_t |
= | (NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t | - | CashFlowsfromOperations_t) | / | TotalAssets_t | |
= | (18.87 - 5.525 | - | 287.375) | / | 12276.326 | |
= | -0.022322 |
An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.
Advance Auto Parts has a M-score of -2.41 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.
Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Advance Auto Parts's Beneish M-Score provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.
Kristen L Soler | officer: EVP, Chief HR Officer | 12200 FOX VALLEY STREET, RALEIGH NC 27614 |
Lee Eugene I Jr | director | 1000 DARDEN CENTER DRIVE, ORLANDO FL 32837 |
Shane M Okelly | director, officer: Director, President and CEO | 4200 SIX FORKS ROAD, RALEIGH NC 27609 |
Anthony A Iskander | officer: Interim CFO, SVP, Fin & Treas | 4200 SIX FORKS ROAD, RALEIGH NC 27609 |
Douglas A Pertz | director | 1801 BAYBERRY COURT, RICHMOND VA 23226 |
Joan M Hilson | director | 150 THORN HILL DRIVE, WARRENDALE PA 15086-7528 |
John Francis Ferraro | director | 9 WALNUT AVE, CAMBRIDGE MA 02140 |
Carla Jean Bailo | director | 1775 SHERMAN STREET, SUITE 1200, DENVER CO 80203 |
Jones Jeffrey J Ii | director | ONE H&R BLOCK WAY, KANSAS CITY MO 64105 |
Szilagyi J Stephen | officer: EVP Chief Supply Chain Officer | 15027 JUNE WASHAM ROAD, RALEIGH NC 27609 |
Word Herman L Jr | officer: EVP, U.S. Stores & CQ Ind. | 1033 LINENHALL WAY, WAKE FOREST NC 27587 |
Pellicciotti William J Jr | officer: SVP, Controller and CAO | 4200 SIX FORKS ROAD, RALEIGH NC 27609 |
Robert B Cushing | officer: EVP, Commercial | 1432 FREEMAN LANE, PLEASANTON VA 94566 |
Sherice Torres | director | PO BOX 20833, SAN JOSE CA 95160 |
Natalie Schechtman | officer: SVP Human Resources | 45 ROUND HOUSE ROAD, BEDFORD NY 10506 |
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