Guggenheim Taxable Municipal Managed Duration Trust (Guggenheim Taxable Municipal Managed Duration Trust) Predictability Rank

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What is Guggenheim Taxable Municipal Managed Duration Trust Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Guggenheim Taxable Municipal Managed Duration Trust Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Guggenheim Taxable Municipal Managed Duration Trust (Guggenheim Taxable Municipal Managed Duration Trust) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » Guggenheim Taxable Municipal Managed Duration Trust (NYSE:GBAB) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

227 West Monroe, Chicago, IL, USA, 60606

Website

https://www.guggenheiminvestments.com

Guggenheim Taxable Municipal Managed Duration Trust is a diversified closed-end management investment company. Its investment objective is to provide current income with a secondary objective of long-term capital appreciation. Its products include Mutual funds, Unit investment trusts, Closed-end funds, Rydex funds, Credit income fund.

Executives

Toupin Ronald E Jr	director, other: Trustee	117 ASHLAND AVENUE, RIVER FOREST IL 60305
Angela Brock-kyle	director, other: Trustee	3700 COLONNADE PARKWAY, BIRMINGHAM AL 35243
Chubb Donald A. Jr.	director, other: Trustee	2455 CORPORATE WEST DRIVE, LISLE IL 60532
Lydon Thomas F Jr	director, other: Trustee
Sandra G Sponem	director, other: Trustee	800 NICOLLET MALL, J1012057, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55402-7020
Evan Loring Serdensky	other: Portfolio Manager	227 WEST MONROE STREET, CHICAGO IL 60606
William Rehder	officer: Assistant Vice President	227 W MONROE STREET, CHICAGO IL 60606
Steven H. Brown	other: Portfolio Manager	227 WEST MONROE STREET, 49TH FLOOR, CHICAGO IL 60606
Adam Bloch	other: portfolio manager	2455 CORPORATE WEST DRIVE, LISLE IL 60532
Jon Szafran	officer: Assistant Treasurer	227 W. MONROE STREET, CHICAGO IL 60606
Brian E. Binder	officer: President and CEO	C/O ANJIE LAROCCA, DEUTSCHE BANK, 60 WALL STREET, NEW YORK NY 11752
Anne Bookwalter Walsh	other: Managing Director	2455 CORPORATE WEST DRIVE, LISLE IL 60532
Keith David Kemp	officer: Assistant Treasurer	MACQUARIE FUND ADVISER LLC, 125 WEST 55TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10019
Glenn Mcwhinnie	officer: Assistant Treasurer	227 W. MONROE STREET, CHICAGO IL 60606
Adam J Nelson	officer: Assistant Treasurer	227 WEST MONROE STREET, CHICAGO IL 60606

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