MFS Government Marketsome Trust (MFS Government Marketsome Trust) Predictability Rank

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What is MFS Government Marketsome Trust Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

MFS Government Marketsome Trust Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

MFS Government Marketsome Trust Predictability Rank Related Terms

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MFS Government Marketsome Trust (MFS Government Marketsome Trust) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » MFS Government Markets Income Trust (NYSE:MGF) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

111 Huntington Avenue, Boston, MA, USA, 02199

Website

https://www.mfs.com

MFS Government Markets Income Trust is a United States-based diversified, closed-end management investment company. Its investment objective is to seek high current income. The fund invests a majority of the net assets, including borrowings for investment purposes, in U.S. and foreign government securities. The trust invests most of the assets in investment-grade debt instruments. Its portfolio of investments comprises of different sectors investment such as the automotive, chemicals, computer software, consumer products, insurance, and other sectors.

Executives

Linda Dougherty	other: OFFICER OF ADVISOR	111 HUNTINGTON AVENUE, BOSTON MA 02199
Jake Stone	other: PORTFOLIO MANAGER	111 HUNTINGTON AVENUE, BOSTON MA 02199
Rosa Licea-mailloux	other: CHIEF COMPLIANCE OFFICER	111 HUNTINGTON AVENUE, BOSTON MA 02199
Manjit Singh	director	111 HUNTINGTON AVENUE, BOSTON MA 02072
Neeraj Arora	other: PORTFOLIO MANAGER	111 HUNTINGTON AVENUE, BOSTON MA 02199
Alexander Mackey	other: PORTFOLIO MANAGER	MFS INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT, 111 HUNTINGTON AVENUE, BOSTON MA 02199
Jacques Jr Goulet	other: ADVISOR TO OFFICER	111 HUNTINGTON AVENUE, BOSTON MA 02199
Melissa Kennedy	other: OFFICER OF ADVISOR	111 HUNTINGTON AVENUE, BOSTON MA 02199
James W. Kilman	director	111 HUNTINGTON AVENUE, BOSTON MA 02199
Edward M. Maloney	officer: Officer of Advisor	111 HUNTINGTON AVENUE, BOSTON MA 02199
Peter Darrell Jones	director	111 HUNTINGTON AVENUE, BOSTON MA 02199
Carol W. Geremia	officer: PRESIDENT	111 HUNTINGTON AVENUE, BOSTON MA 02199
Kevin D Strain	other: Officer of Advisor	MFS INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT, 111 HUNTINGTON AVENUE, BOSTON MA 02199
Clarence Jr Otis	director	1095 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10036
John A Caroselli	director	ONE METROTECH CENTER, BROOKLYN NY 11201

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