American Assets Trust (American Assets Trust) Predictability Rank

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What is American Assets Trust Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

American Assets Trust Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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American Assets Trust (American Assets Trust) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » REITs » American Assets Trust Inc (NYSE:AAT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

3420 Carmel Mountain Road, Suite 100, San Diego, CA, USA, 92121

Website

https://www.americanassetstrust.com

American Assets Trust Inc is a self-administered real estate investment trust based in the United States. The company invests in, operates, and develops retail, office, residential, and mixed-use properties. Properties are primarily located in South California, Northern California, Oregon, Washington, and Hawaii. American Assets operates through four segments based on property type: retail; office; mixed-use, which consists of retail and hotel components; and multifamily, which includes the company's apartment properties. The retail and office segments collectively contribute the majority of the total revenue.

Executives

Ernest S Rady	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Executive Chairman	23 PASTEUR ROAD, C/O WESTCORP, IRVINE CA 92618
Nina A Tran	director	C/O AMB PROPERTY CORPORATION, PIER 1, BAY 1, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111
Adam Wyll	officer: Senior VP, Gen Counsel and Sec	11455 EL CAMINO REAL, SUITE 200, SAN DIEGO CA 92130
Robert F. Barton	officer: Executive Vice President & CFO	11455 EL CAMINO REAL, SUITE 200, SAN DIEGO CA 92130
Joy L. Schaefer	director	30699 RUSSELL RANCH ROAD, SUITE 295, WESTLAKE VILLAGE CA 91362
Duane Nelles	director	23 PASTEUR ROAD, IRVINE CA 92618
Jerry Gammieri	officer: V. P. Construction and Devlp	11455 EL CAMINO REAL, SUITE 200, SAN DIEGO CA 92130
Patrick Kinney	officer: Senior VP of Real Estate Ops	11455 EL CAMINO REAL, SUITE 200, SAN DIEGO CA 92130
John W. Chamberlain	director, officer: CEO and President	11455 EL CAMINO REAL, SUITE 200, SAN DIEGO CA 92130
American Assets Inc	10 percent owner	3430 CARMEL MOUNTAIN ROAD, SUITE 150, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Alan D Gold	director	17140 BERNARDO CENTER DRIVE, SUITE 195, SAN DIEGO CA 92128
Larry E Finger	director	1626 EAST JEFFERSON ST, ROCKVILLE MD 20852
Thomas S Olinger	director	C/O AMB PROPERTY CORPORATION, PIER 1, BAY 1, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111
Robert S Sullivan	director	P O BOX 1637, HOUSTON TX 77251
Lange Edward F Jr	director	405 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022