Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings (Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings) Predictability Rank

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What is Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings (Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Transportation » Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings Inc (NAS:AAWW) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

2000 Westchester Avenue, Purchase, NY, USA, 10577-2543

Website

https://www.atlasairworldwide.com

Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings Inc is a provider of outsourced aircraft and aviation operating services and the outsourced airfreight provider in the world. Company operates a fleet of 747 freighters and provides customers with a broad array of 747, 777, 767 and 737 aircraft for domestic, regional and international cargo and passenger operations. The company has operations in Africa, Asia, Australia, Europe, the Middle East, North America and South America. The company's business is organized into two operating segments based on service offerings: 1) Airline Operations include providing cargo aircraft outsourcing services to customers on an ACMI, CMI and Charter basis. 2) Dry Leasing business provides aircraft and engines to customers, including CMI customers, for a fixed monthly amount.

Executives

John W Dietrich	officer: SVP/Gen Cnsl/Secretary, other: Chf. HR Off
Walter G Borst	director	2701 NAVISTAR DRIVE, LISLE IL 60532
Raymond L. Conner	director	ALASKA AIR GROUP, INC., 19300 INTERNATIONAL BLVD, SEATTLE WA 98188
George Willis	director	55 GLENLAKE PARKWAY, NE, ATLANTA GA 30328
Adam Richard Kokas	officer: Sr. V.P., Gen. Counsel & Secy.	C/O ATLAS AIR WORLDWIDE HOLDINGS, INC., 2000 WESTCHESTER AVENUE, PURCHASE NY 10577
Michael Steen	officer: SVP & Chief Marketing Officer	2000 WESTCHESTER AVENUE, PURCHASE NY 10577
John K Wulff	director	C/O HERCULES INC, 1313 NORTH MARKET STREET, WILMINGTON DE 19894-0001
Keith H. Mayer	officer: Vice President & Controller	ATLAS AIR WORLDWIDE HOLDINGS, INC., 2000 WESTCHESTER AVENUE, PURCHASE NY 10577
Duncan J. Mcnabb	director	C/O ATLAS AIR WORLDWIDE HOLDINGS, INC., 2000 WESTCHESTER AVENUE, PURCHASE NY 10577
Sheila A Stamps	director	C/O CIT GROUP, 1 CIT DRIVE, ATTN: GENERAL COUNSEL, LIVINGSTON NJ 07039
James Anthony Forbes	officer: EVP & COO	C/O ATLAS AIR WORLDWIDE HOLDINGS, INC., 2000 WESTCHESTER AVENUE, PURCHASE NY 10577
Carol J Zierhoffer	director	100 NORTH POINT CENTER EAST, SUITE 200, ALPHARETTA GA 30022
Beverly K. Goulet,	director	10990 ROE AVENUE, OVERLAND PARK KS 66211
William J Flynn	director, officer: Pres. & CEO	C/O ATLAS AIR WORLDWIDE HOLDINGS, INC., 2000 WESTCHESTER AVENUE, PURCHASE NY 10577
Spencer Schwartz	officer: Vice President & Controller	C/O ATLAS AIR WORLDWIDE HOLDINGS, INC., 2000 WESTCHESTER AVENUE, PURCHASE NY 10577