ARCA biopharma (ARCA biopharma) Predictability Rank

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What is ARCA biopharma Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

ARCA biopharma Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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ARCA biopharma (ARCA biopharma) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » ARCA biopharma Inc (NAS:ABIO) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

HQ10:Germany

Address

10170 Church Ranch Way, Suite 100, Westminster, CO, USA, 80021

Website

http://www.arcabiopharma.com

ARCA biopharma Inc is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company applying a precision medicine approach to the development and commercialization of targeted therapies for cardiovascular diseases. The company's product candidates are rNAPc2 as a potential treatment for COVID-19, the disease syndrome caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus, and potentially other viral diseases and Gencaro for the treatment of atrial fibrillation, or AF, in patients with chronic heart failure, or HF. rNAPc2 targets COVID-19 patients with biomarker evidence of coagulopathy, while Gencaro is being developed for patients who have a genotype that identifies a drug target associated with heightened efficacy.

Executives

James P Flynn	director	41 HARRIS CT, DANVILLE CA 94526
Funicular Funds, Lp	10 percent owner, other: See Footnote 1	2261 MARKET STREET, #4307, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94114
Funicular Fund, Lp	other: See Footnote 1	2261 MARKET STREET, #4307, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94114
Jacob Ma-weaver	other: See Remarks	2261 MARKET STREET, #4307, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94114
Christopher David Ozeroff	officer: S.V.P., General Counsel	8001 ARISTA PLACE, SUITE 200, BROOMFIELD CO 80021
Robert E Conway	director	C/O ARCA BIOPHARMA, INC, 8001 ARISTA PLACE, STE 430, BROOMFIELD CO 80021
C. Jeffrey Dekker	officer: Chief Financial Officer	10170 CHURCH RANCH WAY, WESTMINSTER CO 80021
Thomas A Keuer	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O ARCA BIOPHARMA, INC., 10170 CHURCH RANCH WAY, STE 100, WESTMINSTER CO 80021
Brian L. Selby	officer: VP, Finance	11080 CIRCLEPOINT ROAD, SUITE 140, WESTMINSTER CO 80020
Venrock Healthcare Capital Partners Lp	10 percent owner	530 FIFTH AVENUE, 22ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10036
Scott D Sandell	10 percent owner
David M Mott	10 percent owner	1119 ST. PAUL STREET, BALTIMORE MD 21202
Joshua Makower	10 percent owner	1212 TERRA BELLA AVENUE, MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94043
Forest Baskett	10 percent owner
Peter J Barris	10 percent owner	1119 ST PAUL STREET, BALTIMORE MD 21202