Aceragen (Aceragen) Predictability Rank

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What is Aceragen Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Aceragen Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Aceragen (Aceragen) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Aceragen Inc (NAS:ACGN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

505 Eagleview Boulevard, Suite 212, Exton, PA, USA, 19341

Website

https://www.aceragen.com

Aceragen Inc is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company committed to transforming the care of people living with rare pulmonary and rheumatic diseases. The company portfolio includes late-stage programs based on well-established biological principles that are developing to be inventive therapeutics capable of addressing the unmet medical needs of individuals living with rare diseases.

Executives

Vincent Milano	director, officer: President & CEO	C/O VIROPHARMA INC, 405 EAGLEVIEW BLVD, EXTON PA 19341
Maxine Gowen	director
Pillar Invest Corp	director, 10 percent owner	C/O PILLAR INVEST OFFSHORE SAL, STARCO CENTER, BLOC B FL3, OMAR DAOUK ST, BEIRUT M8 2020-3313
Atul Chopra	10 percent owner	C/O ACERAGEN, INC., 15 TW ALEXANDER DRIVE, DURHAM NC 27709
John Clayton Taylor	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O ACERAGEN, INC., 15 TW ALEXANDER DRIVE, DURHAM NC 27709
Carl N Kraus	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O ACERAGEN, INC., 15 TW ALEXANDER DRIVE, DURHAM NC 27709
Andrew R Jordan	officer: Chief Strategy Officer	C/O GUILFORD PHARMACEUTICALS INC, 6611 TIBUTARY ST., BALTIMORE MD 21224
Daniel Salain	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O GRAYBUG VISION, INC., 275 SHORELINE DRIVE, SUITE 450, REDWOOD CITY CA 94065
Ronald J Wooten	director
Nq Pof V Gp, Ltd.	director, other: See Remarks	4208 SIX FORKS ROAD, SUITE 920, RALEIGH NC 27609
Novaquest Co-investment Fund Xv, L.p.	director, other: See Remarks	4208 SIX FORKS ROAD, SUITE 920, RALEIGH NC 27609
John J. Kirby	officer: V.P. of Finance, PFO & PAO	C/O IDERA PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 505 EAGLEVIEW BLVD., SUITE 212, EXTON PA 19341
Michael R Dougherty	director	C/O ADOLOR CORP, 700 PENNSYLVANIA DR, EXTON PA 19341
Elizabeth Ann Tarka	officer: Chief Medical Officer	111 WAVERLY CIRCLE, PHOENIXVILLE PA 19460
Bryant David Lim	officer: SVP & General Counsel	C/O IDERA PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 505 EAGLEVIEW BLVD., SUITE 212, EXTON PA 19341