Aeva Technologies (Aeva Technologies) Predictability Rank

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What is Aeva Technologies Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Aeva Technologies Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Aeva Technologies (Aeva Technologies) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » Aeva Technologies Inc (NYSE:AEVA) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

555 Ellis Street, Mountain View, CA, USA, 94043

Website

https://www.aeva.ai

Aeva Technologies Inc through its Frequency Modulated Continuous Wave (FMCW) sensing technology, designs a 4D LiDAR-on-chip that, along with its proprietary software applications, has the potential to enable the adoption of LiDAR across broad applications from automated driving to consumer electronics, consumer health, industrial automation, and security application.

Executives

Stephen Paul Zadesky	director	555 ELLIS STREET, MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94043
Sylebra Capital Ltd	director, 10 percent owner	28 HENNESSY ROAD, 20TH FLOOR, WAN CHAI, HONG KONG K3 00000
Soroush Salehian Dardashti	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O AEVA TECHNOLOGIES, INC., 555 ELLIS STREET, MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94043
Erin L Polek	director	5775 MOREHOUSE DRIVE, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Eberle Christopher G Jr	director	14 E. 4TH ST SUITE 405, NEW YORK NY 10012
Daniel Patrick Gibson	10 percent owner	400 FAIRVIEW AVENUE NORTH, SUITE 1200, SEATTLE WA 98109
Saurabh Sinha	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O AEVA TECHNOLOGIES, INC., 555 ELLIS STREET, MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94043
Peter Hebert	10 percent owner	C/O LUX VENTURES, 295 MADISON AVE, 24TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017
Shahin Farshchi	director	11740 WILSHIRE BLVD, #A1309, LOS ANGELES CA 90025
Hrach Simonian	director	285 RIVERSIDE AVE., SUITE 250, WESTPORT CT 06880
Mina Rezk	director, 10 percent owner, officer: President & CTO	C/O AEVA TECHNOLOGIES, INC., 555 ELLIS STREET, MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94043
Josh Wolfe	10 percent owner	C/O LUX HEALTH TECH ACQUISITION CORP., 920 BROADWAY, 11TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10010
Lux Co-invest Opportunities, L.p.	10 percent owner	C/O LUX CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, 920 BROADWAY, 11TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10010
Lux Co-invest Partners, Llc	10 percent owner	C/O LUX CAPITAL, 920 BROADWAY, 11TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10010
Lux Venture Partners Iv, Llc	10 percent owner	920 BROADWAY, 11TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10010