Ashford Hospitality Trust (Ashford Hospitality Trust) Predictability Rank

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What is Ashford Hospitality Trust Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Ashford Hospitality Trust Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Ashford Hospitality Trust (Ashford Hospitality Trust) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » REITs » Ashford Hospitality Trust Inc (NYSE:AHT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

AHTpI.PFD:USA AHTpH.PFD:USA AHTpG.PFD:USA AHTpF.PFD:USA AHTpD.PFD:USA

Address

14185 Dallas Parkway, Suite 1200, Dallas, TX, USA, 75254

Website

https://www.ahtreit.com

Ashford Hospitality Trust Inc. is a real estate investment trust that invests in full-service upscale and upper-upscale hotel properties in the U.S. The company owns and operates its assets through its operating partnership, Ashford Hospitality Limited Partnership. All of its hotels are located across the U.S. and operate under the Marriott, Hilton, Hyatt, Crowne Plaza, and Sheraton brands. Ashford's sole segment is Direct Hotel Investments, through which it owns hotels by acquisition or development. Ashford also provides rest estate investment services, such as mezzanine financing, first mortgage financing, and sales-leaseback transactions. Its revenue streams include Room revenue, Food and beverage revenue, and Other revenue. Room revenue accounts for the majority of total revenue.

Executives

Davinder Singh Sra	director	14185 DALLAS PARKWAY, SUITE 1200, DALLAS TX 75254
Deric S Eubanks	officer: Chief Financial Officer	14185 DALLAS PARKWAY, SUITE 1100, DALLAS TX 75254
Ansell Benjamin J Md	director	14185 DALLAS PARKWAY, SUITE 1100, DALLAS TX 75254
Brookfield Asset Management Inc.	10 percent owner	BROOKFIELD PLACE, 181 BAY ST, STE 100, PO BOX 762, TORONTO A6 M5J2T3
Oaktree Fund Gp I, L.p.	10 percent owner	333 SOUTH GRAND AVENUE, 28TH FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90071
Oaktree Aif Investment Gp, Llc	10 percent owner	333 SOUTH GRAND AVENUE, 28TH FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90071
Oaktree Aif Investments, L.p.	10 percent owner	333 SOUTH GRAND AVENUE, 28TH FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90071
Oaktree Fund Gp Aif, Llc	10 percent owner	333 SOUTH GRAND AVENUE, 28TH FLOOR, LOS ANGLES CA 90071
Oaktree Fund Aif Series, L.p.	10 percent owner	333 SOUTH GRAND AVENUE, 28TH FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90071
Oaktree Fund Gp Iii, L.p.	10 percent owner	333 SOUTH GRAND AVENUE, 28TH FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90071
Atlas Ocm Holdings, Llc	10 percent owner	C/O OAKTREE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P., 333 S. GRAND AVENUE, 28TH FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90071
Bam Partners Trust	10 percent owner	181 BAY STREET, SUITE 300, TORONTO A6 M5J 2T3
Oaktree Capital Management Gp, Llc	10 percent owner	333 SOUTH GRAND AVE, 28TH FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90071
Oaktree Real Estate Opportunities Fund Viii Gp Ltd.	10 percent owner	C/O OAKTREE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P., 333 S. GRAND AVENUE, 28TH FL, LOS ANGELES CA 90071
Oaktree Real Estate Opportunities Fund Viii Gp, L.p.	10 percent owner	C/O OAKTREE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P., 333 S. GRAND AVENUE, 28TH FL, LOS ANGELES CA 90071