Senmiao Technology (Senmiao Technology) Predictability Rank

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What is Senmiao Technology Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Senmiao Technology Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Senmiao Technology (Senmiao Technology) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Credit Services » Senmiao Technology Ltd (NAS:AIHS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

Middle Jiannan Boulevard, 16th Floor, Shihao Square, High-Tech Zone, Sichuan, Chengdu, CHN, 610000

Website

http://www.senmiaotech.com

Senmiao Technology Ltd is a holding company. The company's operating segment includes Automobile Transaction and Related Services and Online ride-hailing platform Services. It generates maximum revenue from the Automobile Transaction and Related Services segment. Geographically, it derives revenue from China.

Executives

Xiaoyuan Zhang	officer: CFO & Treasurer	16F SHIHAO SQUARE MIDDLE JIANNAN BLVD, HIGH TECH ZONE, CHENGDU, SICHUAN F4 610000
Haitao Liu	officer: Chief Operating Officer	16F SHIHAO SQUARE MIDDLE JIANNAN BLVD, HIGH TECH ZONE CHENGDU, SICHUAN F4 610000
Chunhai Li	officer: Chief Technology Officer	16F SHIHAO SQUARE MIDDLE JIANNAN BLVD, HIGH TECH ZONE CHENGDU, SICHUAN F4 610000
Trent D Davis	director	811 SW NAITO PARKWAY, SUITE 200, PORTLAND OR 97204
Xiaojuan Lin	director	16F SHIHAO SQUARE MIDDLE JIANNAN BLVD, HIGH TECH ZONE CHENGDU, SICHUAN F4 610000
Xi Wen	director, officer: See Remarks	16F SHIHAO SQUARE MIDDLE JIANNAN BLVD, HIGH TECH ZONE CHENGDU, SICHUAN F4 610000
Jie Gao	director	16F, SHIHAO SQUARE, MIDDLE JIANNAN BLVD., HIGH-TECH ZONE, CHENGDU, SICHUAN F4 610000
Sichun Wang	director	16F, SHIHAO SQUARE, MIDDLE JIANNAN BLVD., HIGH-TECH ZONE, CHENGDU, SICHUAN F4 610000
Rong Zhu	officer: Chief Financial Officer	16F SHIHAO SQUARE MIDDLE JIANNAN BLVD, HIGH TECH ZONE CHENGDU, SICHUAN F4 610000
Yulei Rao	director	16F SHIHAO SQUARE MIDDLE JIANNAN BLVD, HIGH TECH ZONE CHENGDU, SICHUAN F4 610000
Xiang Hu	director, 10 percent owner	16F SHIHAO SQUARE MIDDLE JIANNAN BLVD, HIGH TECH ZONE CHENGDU, SICHUAN F4 610000
Xi Chen	officer: Chief Executive Officer	16F SHIHAO SQUARE MIDDLE JIANNAN BLVD, HIGH TECH ZONE CHENGDU, SICHUAN F4 610000