Akoustis Technologies (Akoustis Technologies) Predictability Rank

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What is Akoustis Technologies Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Akoustis Technologies Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Akoustis Technologies (Akoustis Technologies) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Hardware » Akoustis Technologies Inc (NAS:AKTS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

AVH:Germany AVH:Germany

Address

9805 Northcross Center Court, Suite A, Huntersville, NC, USA, 28078

Website

https://www.akoustis.com

Akoustis Technologies Inc is an emerging commercial product company focused on developing, designing, and manufacturing innovative RF filter solutions for the wireless industry, including for products such as smartphones and tablets, network infrastructure equipment, WiFi Customer Premise Equipment and defense applications. The company has developed a proprietary microelectromechanical system based bulk acoustic wave technology and a unique manufacturing process flow, called XBAW, for filters produced for use in RFFE modules. The company derives revenue from the sale of filter products under individual customer purchase orders, some of which have underlying master sales agreements that specify terms governing the product sales.

Executives

David Aichele	officer: VP of Business Development	9805 NORTHCROSS CENTER CT, SUITE H, HUNTERSVILLE NC 28078
Kenneth Boller	officer: Interim CFO	9805 NORTHCROSS CENTER CT., SUITE A, HUNTERSVILLE NC 28078
Steven Denbaars	director	9805 NORTHCROSS CENTER CT, SUITE H, HUNTERSVILLE NC 28078
Michelle Petock	director	9805 NORTHCROSS CENTER CT., SUITE A, HUNTERSVILLE NC 28078
Jeffrey B. Shealy	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer	9805 NORTHCROSS CENTER CT, SUITE A, HUNTERSVILLE NC 28078
James Michael Mcguire	director	9805 NORTHCROSS CENTER CT., SUITE A, HUNTERSVILLE NC 28078
Suzanne B Rudy	director	7628 THORNDIKE RD, GREENSBORO NC 27409
Arthur Geiss	director	9805 NORTHCROSS CENTER CT, SUITE H, HUNTERSVILLE NC 28078
Rohan Houlden	officer: Chief Product Officer	9805 NORTHCROSS CENTER CT., SUITE A, HUNTERSVILLE NC 27078
Jeffrey Mcmahon	director	9805 NORTHCROSS CENTER CT, SUITE H, HUNTERSVILLE NC 28078
Jerry D Neal	director
Steven P Miller	director	C/O TRIQUINT SEMICONDUCTOR INC, 2300 NE BROOKWOOD PKWY, HILLSBORO OR 97124
John T Kurtzweil	director	C/O CIRRUS LOGIC, INC., 2901 VIA FORTUNA, AUSTIN TX 78746
Mark N. Tompkins	10 percent owner	APP. 1, VIA GUIDINO 23, LUGANO-PARADISO V8 6900
Mark Boomgarden	officer: Vice President of Operations	9805 NORTHCROSS CENTER CT, SUITE H, HUNTERSVILLE NC 28078