Allena Pharmaceuticals (Allena Pharmaceuticals) Predictability Rank

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What is Allena Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Allena Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Allena Pharmaceuticals (Allena Pharmaceuticals) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Allena Pharmaceuticals Inc (OTCPK:ALNAQ) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

One Newton Executive Park, Suite 202, Newton, MA, USA, 02462

Website

https://www.allenapharma.com

Allena Pharmaceuticals Inc is a late-stage clinical biopharmaceutical company engaged in developing and commercializing first-in-class, oral enzyme therapeutics to treat patients with rare and severe metabolic and kidney disorders. The company is focused on metabolic disorders that result in excess accumulation of certain metabolites, such as oxalate and urate, that can cause kidney stones, damage the kidney, and potentially lead to chronic kidney disease, or CKD, and end-stage renal disease. The company's product candidate, reloxaliase, is a first-in-class, oral enzyme therapeutic for the treatment of hyperoxaluria, a metabolic disorder characterized by markedly elevated urinary oxalate levels and commonly associated with kidney stones, CKD and other serious kidney diseases.

Executives

Louis Md Brenner	officer: See Remarks	RADIUS HEALTH, INC., 201 BROADWAY, 6TH FLOOR, CAMBRIDGE MA 02140
Mark J. Fitzpatrick	director	101 MAIN STREET, SUITE 1850, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Richard D Katz	officer: Chief Financial Officer	4505 EMPEROR BOULEVARD, SUITE 300, DURHAM NC 27703
Edward Wholihan	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O ALLENA PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., ONE NEWTOWN EXECUTIVE PARK SUITE 202, NEWTON MA 02462
Ann Calby Miller	director	C/O INOVIO PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 660 W. GERMANTOWN PIKE, SUITE 110, PLYMOUTH MEETING PA 19462
Allene M. Diaz	director	C/O ALLENA PHARMACEUTIALS, INC., ONEW NEWTON EXECUTIVE PARK SUITE 202, NEWTON MA 02462
Hack Andrew A. F.	director	300 THIRD STREET, FIRST FLOOR, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Bessemer Venture Partners Vii L.p.	10 percent owner	C/O BESSEMER VENTURE PARTNERS, 1865 PALMER AVENUE, LARCHMONT NY 10538
Hbm Biocapital Ii Lp	10 percent owner	11-15 SEATON PLACE, ST. HELIER Y9 JE4 0QH
James N Topper	director, 10 percent owner	550 HAMILTON AVENUE, SUITE 100, PALO ALTO CA 94301
Fhm Vi, L.l.c.	10 percent owner	601 UNION STREET, SUITE 3200, SEATTLE WA 98101
Robert I Tepper	director, 10 percent owner	201 BROOKLINE AVE, SUITE 1401, BOSTON MA 02215
Third Rock Ventures Ii, L.p.	10 percent owner	29 NEWBURY STREET, 3RD FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116
Robert Alexander	director	508 WRANGLER DRIVE, SUITE 100, COPPELL TX 75019
Alexey L Margolin	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O ALTUS PHARMACEUTICALS INC., 125 SIDNEY STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139