AstroNova (AstroNova) Predictability Rank

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What is AstroNova Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

AstroNova Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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AstroNova (AstroNova) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Hardware » AstroNova Inc (NAS:ALOT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

AZO:Germany

Address

600 East Greenwich Avenue, West Warwick, RI, USA, 02893

Website

https://www.astronovainc.com

AstroNova Inc designs develops, manufactures and distributes a broad range of specialty printers and data acquisition and analysis systems, including both hardware and software, which incorporate advanced technologies to acquire, store, analyze, and present data in multiple formats. Target markets for its hardware and software products include aerospace, apparel, automotive, avionics, chemicals, computer peripherals, communications, distribution, food and beverage, general manufacturing, packaging and transportation. Its business consists of two segments, Product Identification and Test & Measurement. It derives revenue from The PI segment that includes specialty printing systems and related supplies sold under the QuickLabel, TrojanLabel and GetLabels brand names.

Executives

Alexis P Michas	director	940 WINTER STREET, C/O PERKINELMER, WALTHAM MA 02451
Yvonne Schlaeppi	director	600 EAST GREENWICH AVENUE, WEST WARWICK X1 02893
Richard S Warzala	director	495 COMMERCE DRIVE, AMHERST NY 14228
Thomas Wayne Carll	officer: Vice President	264 CASTLE ROCKS ROAD, WARWICK RI 02864
David S Smith	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O STANDARD MICROSYSTEMS CORPORATION, 80 ARKAY DRIVE, HAUPPAUGE NY 11788
Mitchell I Quain	director	53 FOREST AVENUE, SUITE 101, OLD GREENWICH CT 06870
Jean A Bua	director
Harold Schofield	director	9 ATLANTIC AVENUE, NARRAGANSETT RI 02882
Michael J Natalizia	officer: Vice President and CTO	50 EDGEWATER ROAD, NARRAGANSETT RI 02882
Michael Morawetz	officer: VP - International Branches	36396 STEINAU, SUDENTENSTRASSE 2M 12
Everett V Pizzuti	director	ADAMS J GWALTNEY, 1500 FLEET CENTER, PROVIDENCE RI 029302393
Albert W. Ondis Declaration Of Trust	10 percent owner	515 BEACH ROAD, FAIRFIELD CT 02903
Eric E Pizzuti	officer: Vice President	72 FOOTE STREET, BARRINGTON RI 02806
John P Jordan	officer: Chief Financial Officer	600 EAST GREENWICH AVENUE, WEST WARWICK RI 02893
April Ondis	director	C/O ASTRO-MED, INC., 600 EAST GREENWICH AVENUE, PROVIDENCE RI 02893