What is Aileron Therapeutics Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Aileron Therapeutics Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Aileron Therapeutics (Aileron Therapeutics) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
285 Summer Street, Unit 101, Boston, MA, USA, 02210
Aileron Therapeutics Inc is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company. It is focused on developing a novel class of therapeutics for the treatment of cancer and other diseases. The company's lead product candidate, ALRN-6924 is a novel chemoprotective medicine to treat and protect healthy cells in patients with cancer that harbors p53 mutations to reduce or eliminate chemotherapy-induced side effects.
Executives
| James Brian Windsor |
officer: See Remarks |
2600 VIA FORTUNA, SUITE 360, AUSTIN TX 78746 |
| William Fairey |
director |
C/O CHEMOCENTRYX, INC., 850 MAUDE AVE., MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94043 |
| Alan A Musso |
director |
FULCRUM THERAPEUTICS, INC., 26 LANDSDOWNE STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139 |
| Susan L. Drexler |
officer: See Remarks |
630 W. GERMANTOWN PIKE, SUITE 215, PLYMOUTH MEETING PA 19462 |
| Muneer A Satter |
10 percent owner |
C/O SATTER INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT, LLC, 676 NORTH MICHIGAN AVENUE, SUITE 4000, CHICAGO IL 60611 |
| Reinhard J. Ambros |
director |
C/O AILERON THERAPEUTICS, INC., 281 ALBANY STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139 |
| Von Rickenbach Josef H |
director |
C/O PAREXEL INTERNATIONAL CORPORATION, WALTHAM MA 02451-1163 |
| Jeffrey Allen Bailey |
director |
BIODELIVERY SCIENCES INTERNATIONAL, INC., 4131 PARKLAKE AVE., SUITE 225, RALEIGH NC 27612 |
| Vojo Vukovic |
officer: SVP, Chief Medical Officer |
C/O SYNTA PHARMACEUTICALS CORP., 45 HARTWELL AVENUE, LEXINGTON MA 02421 |
| Kathryn Gregory |
officer: SVP, Chief Business Officer |
305 THAYER POND ROAD, WILTON CT 06897 |
| William Mckee |
director |
|
| Nolan Howard Sigal |
director |
941 BERRY AVENUE, LOS ALTOS CA 94024 |
| Novartis Bioventures Ltd |
10 percent owner |
C/O NOVARTIS INTERNATIONAL AG, WSJ-200.220, CH-4002 BASEL V8 0000000000 |
| Rick Wanstall |
officer: VP, Finance and Operations |
C/O AILERON THERAPEUTICS, INC., 490 ARSENAL WAY, WATERTOWN MA 02472 |
| Longenecker John P Phd |
officer: President and CEO |
10445 PACIFIC CENTER CT, SAN DIEGO CA 92121 |
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