Alerus Financial (Alerus Financial) Predictability Rank

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What is Alerus Financial Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Alerus Financial Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Alerus Financial (Alerus Financial) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Alerus Financial Corp (NAS:ALRS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

5QD:Germany

Address

401 Demers Avenue, Grand Forks, ND, USA, 58201

Website

https://www.alerus.com

Alerus Financial Corp is a financial holding company registered in the United States. The company operates in four segments: Banking, Retirement & Benefit Services, Wealth Management, and Mortgage. It provides various banking services such as checking, debit cards, savings, current deposits, loans and advances, online banking, mobile banking, private banking, payment solutions, and other business products. Additionally, the company provides mortgage loans, retirement planning solutions, individual retirement accounts, retirement plan advisory services as well as wealth management services, including financial & estate planning, trust, and fiduciary services. The company's revenue mainly consists of interest income, commission, management fees, and other income.

Executives

Kari Koob	officer: Director of Accounting	401 DEMERS AVENUE, GRAND FORKS ND 58201
Alan Villalon	officer: Chief Financial Officer	401 DEMERS AVENUE, GRAND FORKS ND 58201
Galen G Vetter	director	500 EAST GRANT STREET, #2011, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55404
Katie A Lorenson	officer: Executive Vice President/ CFO	401 DEMERS AVENUE, GRAND FORKS ND 58201
Janet O Estep	director	6060 COVENTRY DRIVE, ELKHORN NE 68022
Jerrod Hanson	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	401 DEMERS AVENUE, GRAND FORKS ND 58201
Jon Hendry	officer: Chief Technology Officer & EVP	401 DEMERS AVENUE, GRAND FORKS ND 58201
Missy Keney	officer: Chief Engagement Officer & EVP	401 DEMERS AVENUE, GRAND FORKS ND 58201
Jim Collins	officer: EVP, CBO & CRO	401 DEMERS AVENUE, GRAND FORKS ND 58201
Jill Schurtz	director	401 DEMERS AVENUE, GRAND FORKS ND 58201
Mary Zimmer	director	401 DEMERS AVENUE, GRAND FORKS ND 58201
Ryan Goldberg	officer: Chief Revenue Officer	401 DEMERS AVENUE, GRAND FORKS ND 58201
Karen Bohn	director	215 S CASCADE ST, FERGUS FALLS MN 565372801
Kris Compton	officer: Executive Vice President/ CSO	401 DEMERS AVENUE, GRAND FORKS ND 58201
Ann Mcconn	officer: Executive Vice President/ CBO	401 DEMERS AVENUE, GRAND FORKS ND 58201