Altimmune (Altimmune) Predictability Rank

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What is Altimmune Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Altimmune Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Altimmune (Altimmune) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Altimmune Inc (NAS:ALT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

ALT1:Mexico 3G0:Germany 3G0:Germany

Address

910 Clopper Road, Suite 201S, Gaithersburg, MD, USA, 20878

Website

https://www.altimmune.com

Altimmune Inc is engaged on developing treatments for obesity and liver diseases. The Company's pipeline includes next generation peptide therapeutics for obesity and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) (for both, pemvidutide, formerly known as ALT-801), and for chronic hepatitis B (HepTcell). The Company is managed and operates as a single business focused on the research and development of treatments for various diseases and disorders, and vaccines.

Executives

David Drutz	director	8601 SIX FORKS ROAD, SUITE 160, RALEIGH NC 27615
Richard I Eisenstadt	officer: Chief Financial Officer	4819 EMPEROR BOULEVARD, SUITE 400, DURHAM NC 27703
Catherine A. Sohn	director	C/O JAZZ PHARMACEUTICALS PLC, 5TH FL, WATERLOO EXCHANGE, WATERLOO RD, DUBLIN L2 4 L2
Matthew Scott Harris	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O ALTIMMUNE, INC., 910 CLOPPER ROAD, SUITE 201S, GAITHERSBURG MD 20878
Raymond M Jordt	officer: Chief Business Officer	ALTIMMUNE, INC., 910 CLOPPER ROAD, SUITE 201S, GAITHERSBURG MD 20878
Wayne Pisano	director	C/O PROVENTION BIO, INC., P.O. BOX 666, OLDWICK NJ 08858
Vipin K Garg	director, officer: President and CEO	4819 EMPEROR BOULEVARD, SUITE 400, DURHAM NC 27703
John Gill	director	C/O PHARMATHENE, INC, ONE PARK PLACE, SUITE 450, ANNAPOLIS MD 21401
M Scot Roberts	officer: Chief Scientific Officer	910 CLOPPER ROAD, SUITE 201S, GAITHERSBURG MD 20878
Diane Jorkasky	director	60 MANOR AVENUE, WELLESLEY MA 02482
Philip Hodges	director	19 FIRSTFIELD RD., SUITE 200, GAITHERSBURG MD 20878
Vhcp Management Iii, Llc	10 percent owner	7 BRYANT PARK, 23RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10018
Venrock Healthcare Capital Partners Ii, L.p.	10 percent owner	7 BRYANT PARK, 23RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10018
Venrock Healthcare Capital Partners Iii, L.p.	10 percent owner	530 FIFTH AVENUE, 22ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10036
Vhcp Co-investment Holdings Iii, Llc	10 percent owner	7 BRYANT PARK, 23RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10018