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Ambarella (Ambarella) Predictability Rank


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What is Ambarella Predictability Rank?

1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Ambarella Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Ambarella Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Ambarella (Ambarella) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
3101 Jay Street, Santa Clara, CA, USA, 95054
Ambarella Inc is a developer of semiconductor processing solutions for high-definition video capture, sharing, and display. The firm's solutions are sold to original design manufacturers and original equipment manufacturers to be designed for use in infrastructure broadcast encoders, wearable device cameras, automotive cameras, and security cameras. Ambarella's system-on-a-chip designs, based on its proprietary technology platform, are highly configurable to applications in various end markets. Geographical presence in Taiwan, Asia Pacific, Europe, North America and United States. The firm derives majority of revenue from Taiwan.
Executives
Christopher B Paisley director 14870 THREE OAKS COURT, SARATOGA CA 95070
Chi-hong Ju officer: Sr. Vice President, Systems 3101 JAY STREET, SANTA CLARA CA 95054
Chan W Lee officer: Chief Operating Officer 3101 JAY STREET, SANTA CLARA CA 95054
Brian C White officer: CFO C/O INTEGRATED DEVICE TECHNOLOGY, INC., 6024 SILVER CREEK VALLEY ROAD, SAN JOSE CA 95138
Feng-ming Wang director, officer: Chief Executive Officer 2975 SAN YSIDRO WAY, SANTA CLARA CA 95051
Christopher Day officer: See Remarks 2975 SAN YSIDRO WAY, SANTA CLARA CA 95051
Leslie Kohn director, officer: Chief Technology Officer 2975 SAN YSIDRO WAY, SANTA CLARA CA 95051
Elizabeth M Schwarting director 3101 JAY STREET, SANTA CLARA CA 95054
David Jeffrey Richardson director LSI LOGIC CORP, 1621 BARBER LANE, MILPITAS CA 95035
Yun-lung Chen officer: Vice President, Sales 3101 JAY STREET, SANTA CLARA CA 95054
Kevin C Eichler officer: CFO C/O AMBARELLA, INC., 3101 JAY STREET, SANTA CLARA CA 95054
Andrew W Verhalen director C/O MATRIX PARTNERS, 250 HOMER AVE SUITE 201, PALO ALTO CA 94301
Greef-safft Anne De director 11 KEEWAYDIN DRIVE, SUITE 300, SALEM NH 03079
Teresa H Meng director 2535 VALLEJO STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94123
Chenming Hu director 2060 PEBBLE DRIVE, ALAMO CA 94507

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