AMC Networks (AMC Networks) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 2011. Start your Free Trial

What is AMC Networks Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

AMC Networks Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

AMC Networks Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of AMC Networks's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

AMC Networks (AMC Networks) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Communication Services » Media - Diversified » AMC Networks Inc (NAS:AMCX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

9AC:Germany

Address

11 Penn Plaza, New York, NY, USA, 10001

Website

https://www.amcnetworks.com

AMC Networks owns several cable networks, including flagship AMC, WE tv, BBC America, IFC, and SundanceTV. AMC, the most widely distributed channel, reaches more than 70 million pay-TV households in the U.S. Over the last decade, AMC shifted its focus to original scripted programming from classic movies. WE tv targets a female audience and reaches roughly 68 million households. IFC mainly shows independent films and alternative comedy series. AMC also operates a number of niche streaming platforms including Acorn (focused on British shows) and Shudder (focused on horror programming). The firm launched AMC+, a streaming platform for its own content in 2020.

Executives

Matthew Blank	officer: Interim CEO	TWO PENNSYLVANIA PLAZA, NEW YORK NY 10121
James Gallagher	officer: EVP and General Counsel	11 PENN PLAZA, NEW YORK NY 10001
Kimberly Kelleher	officer: Chief Commercial Officer	C/O REDBOX ENTERTAINMENT INC., 1 TOWER LANE, SUITE 800, OAKBROOK TERRACE IL 60181
Dan Mcdermott	officer: President - Ent. & AMC Studios	2425 OLYMPIC BOULEVARD, SANTA MONICA CA 90404
Debra Golding Perelman	director	35 EAST 62ND STREET, NEW YORK NY 10065
Dolan Leinauer Corby	other: Trustee of 13D Group Member	BAKER BOTTS L.L.P., 30 ROCKEFELLER PLAZA, NEW YORK NY 10112
Patrick O'connell	officer: EVP & Chief Financial Officer	11 PENN PLAZA, NEW YORK CITY NY 10001
Joseph Cohen	director	TWO PENNSYLVANIA PLAZA, NEW YORK NY 10121
Joshua W Sapan	officer: President and CEO	11 PENN PLAZA, NEW YORK NY 10001
Christina Spade	officer: COO and CFO	11 PENN PLAZA, NEW YORK NY 10001
Sherin Michael J. Iii	officer: EVP, Chief Accounting Officer	11 PENN PLAZA, NEW YORK CITY NY 10001
Cfd 2021 Gc Trust Fbo Tara E. Dolan	other: Member of 13(d) Group	DOLAN FAMILY OFFICE, LLC, 340 CROSSWAYS PARK DRIVE, WOODBURY NY 11797
Cfd 2021 Gc Trust Fbo Kevyn A. Dolan	other: Member of 13(d) Group	DOLAN FAMILY OFFICE,LLC, 340 CROSSWAYS PARK DRIVE, WOODBURY NY 11797
Aidan J Dolan	director	11 PENN PLAZA, NEW YORK NY 10001
Christian B. Wymbs	officer: EVP & Chief Accounting Officer	AMC NETWORKS INC., 11 PENN PLAZA, NEW YORK NY 10001