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Anacor Pharmaceuticals (Anacor Pharmaceuticals) Predictability Rank


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What is Anacor Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Anacor Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Anacor Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Anacor Pharmaceuticals (Anacor Pharmaceuticals) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
Anacor Pharmaceuticals Inc was incorporated in Delaware in December 2000 and began business operations in March 2002. It is a biopharmaceutical company engaged in discovering, developing and commercializing novel small-molecule therapeutics derived from its boron chemistry platform. It has discovered, synthesized and developed eight molecules that are currently in development. The Company's main product candidates include two topically administered dermatologic compounds, tavaborole (formerly referred to as AN2690) and AN2728. Tavaborole is a topical treatment for onychomycosis, a fungal infection of the nail and nail bed. AN2728 is its main topical anti-inflammatory product candidate for the treatment of atopic dermatitis and psoriasis, chronic inflammatory skin diseases that affect millions of people. In addition, the Company has three other wholly-owned clinical product candidates; AN2718 and AN2898, which are backup compounds to tavaborole and AN2728, respectively, and AN3365 (formerly referred to as GSK2251052, or GSK '052), an antibiotic for the treatment of infections caused by Gram-negative bacteria, which previously was licensed to GlaxoSmithKline LLC (GSK). It has also discovered three other compounds that it has out-licensed for further development; one is licensed to Eli Lilly and Company (Lilly), for the treatment of an animal health indication; a second compound, AN5568, also referred to as SCYX-7158, is licensed to Drugs for Neglected Diseases initiative (DNDi), for human African trypanosomiasis (HAT, or sleeping sickness); and a third compound is licensed to GSK for tuberculosis (TB). As of February 1, 2014, the company was the owner of record, either solely or with a collaborator, of 23 issued U.S. patents. The Company and its third-party manufacturers are subject to periodic inspections of facilities by the FDA and other authorities, including procedures and operations used in the testing and manufacture of its products to assess its compliance with applicable regulations.
Executives
Keith R Leonard director ARYX THERAPEUTICS,INC., 6300 DUMBARTON CIRCLE, FREMONT CA 94555
William Jl Rieflin director NGM BIOPHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 333 OYSTER POINT BLVD., SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Anders D Hove director 30 ROCKEFELLER PLAZA, SUITE 5508, NEW YORK NY 10112
Lucy Shapiro director 10210 GENETIC CENTER COURT, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Graeme Bell officer: Executive VP and CFO 1324 WAVERLY ROAD, GLADWYNE PA 19035
Ryan T Sullivan officer: EVP and General Counsel C/O WARNER CHILCOTT CORPORATION, 100 ENTERPRISE DRIVE, ROCKAWAY NJ 07855
Wendall Wierenga director 12790 EL CAMINO REAL, C/O NEUROCRINE BIOSCIENCES, SAN DIEGO CA 92130
Paul L Berns director, officer: President and CEO 11080 CIRCLEPOINT RD., STE, 200, WESTMINSTER CO 80020
Mark Leschly director RHO CAPITAL PARTNERS, INC., 152 W 57TH ST 23RD FL, NEW YORK NY 10019
Geoffrey M. Parker officer: Executive Vice President & CFO 15 RIORDAN PLACE, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Paul H Klingenstein director 428 UNIVERSITY AVE, C/O ACCEL PARTNERS, PALO ALTO CA 94301
David P Perry director, officer: President and CEO 1020 EAST MEADOW CIRCLE, PALO ALTO CA 94303
Rho Management Ventures Iv Llc 10 percent owner 124 DUNE RD, QUOGUE NY 11959
Rho Ventures Iv Qp Lp 10 percent owner 124 DUNE RD, QUOGUE NY 11959
Rho Ventures Iv Lp 10 percent owner 124 DUNE ROAD, QUOGUE NY 11959

Anacor Pharmaceuticals (Anacor Pharmaceuticals) Headlines