Applied Therapeutics (Applied Therapeutics) Predictability Rank

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What is Applied Therapeutics Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Applied Therapeutics Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Applied Therapeutics (Applied Therapeutics) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Applied Therapeutics Inc (NAS:APLT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

2UV:Germany

Address

545 Fifth Avenue, Suite 1400, New York, NY, USA, 10017

Website

https://www.appliedtherapeutics.com

Applied Therapeutics Inc is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, developing a pipeline of novel product candidates against validated molecular targets in indications of high unmet medical need.

Executives

Stacy J. Kanter	director	C/O APPLIED THERAPEUTICS, INC., 340 MADISON AVENUE, 19TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10173
Shoshana Shendelman	director, 10 percent owner, officer: President and CEO	C/O APPLIED THERAPEUTICS, INC., 340 MADISON AVENUE, 19TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10173
Adam Hansard	officer: Chief Commercial Officer	C/O APPLIED THERAPEUTICS, INC., 545 5TH AVENUE, SUITE 1400, NEW YORK NY 10017
Riccardo Perfetti	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O APPLIED THERAPEUTICS, INC., 340 MADISON AVENUE, 19TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10173
Alexandria Real Estate Equities, Inc.	10 percent owner	26 NORTH EUCLID AVENUE, PASADENA CA 91101
Catherine Thorpe	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	545 FIFTH AVENUE, SUITE 1400, NEW YORK NY 10017
Chids Mahadevan	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	C/O APPLIED THERAPEUTICS, INC., 545 5TH AVENUE SUITE 1400, NEW YORK NY 10017
Steven A. Ortega	officer: Principal Accounting Officer	C/O APPLIED THERAPEUTICS, INC., 545 FIFTH AVENUE, SUITE 1400, NEW YORK NY 10017
Charles Silberstein	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O APPLIED THERAPEUTICS, INC., 545 5TH AVENUE SUITE 1400, NEW YORK NY 10017
Leslie D. Funtleyder	director	C/O APPLIED THERAPEUTICS, INC., 340 MADISON AVENUE, 19TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10173
Joel S Marcus	director	C/O ALEXANDRIA REAL ESTATE EQUITIES, INC, 26 NORTH EUCLID AVENUE, PASADENA CA 91101
Alexandria Equities No. 7, Llc	10 percent owner	26 NORTH EUCLID AVENUE, PASADENA CA 91101
Jay S Skyler	director	DANCE BIOPHARM INC., 150 NORTH HILL DRIVE, SUITE 24, BRISBANE CA 94005
Alexandria Venture Investments, Llc	10 percent owner	26 NORTH EUCLID AVENUE, PASADENA CA 91101
Teena Lerner	director	C/O APPLIED THERAPEUTICS, INC., 340 MADISON AVENUE, 19TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10173