Accuray (Accuray) Predictability Rank

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What is Accuray Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Accuray Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Accuray Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Accuray (Accuray) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Medical Devices & Instruments » Accuray Inc (NAS:ARAY) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

XEJ:Germany

Address

1240 Deming Way, Madison, WI, USA, 53717

Website

https://www.accuray.com

Accuray Inc is a radiation oncology company that develops, manufactures, sells and supports precise, innovative treatment solutions which set the standard of radiation therapy care with the aim of helping patients live better lives. The company's technology, The CyberKnife, is used to treat multiple types of cancer and tumors throughout the body. The CyberKnife Systems automatically track, detect and correct for a tumor and patient movement in real-time during the procedure, enabling delivery of precise, high dose radiation with sub-millimetre accuracy while patients breathe normally, without manual user intervention.

Executives

Gina Corradetti	officer: VP, Corporate Controller	1310 CHESAPEAKE TERRACE, SUNNYVALE CA 94089
Ali Pervaiz	officer: SVP Chief Financial Officer	1310 CHESAPEAKE TERRACE, SUNNYVALE CA 94089
Jesse Chew	officer: SVP and General Counsel	1310 CHESAPEAKE TERRACE, SUNNYVALE CA 94089
Sandeep Chalke	officer: SVP, Chief Commercial Officer	1310 CHESAPEAKE TERRACE, SUNNYVALE CA 94089
Suzanne C Winter	officer: SVP & Chief Commercial Officer	1310 CHESAPEAKE TERRACE, SUNNYVALE CA 94089
Patrick Spine	officer: SVP, Chief Admin Officer	1310 CHESAPEAKE TERRACE, SUNNYVALE CA 94089
Michael Hoge	officer: Senior VP Global Operations	1310 CHESAPEAKE TERRACE, SUNNYVALE CA 94089
Robert Kill	director	VIRTUAL RADIOLOGIC CORPORATION, 5995 OPUS PARKWAY, SUITE 200, MINNETONKA MN 55343
Brandon W Green	officer: Chief Financial Officer	1310 CHESAPEAKE TERRACE, SUNNYVALE CA 94089
Franco N Palomba	officer: VP, Chief Accounting Officer	1310 CHESAPEAKE TERRACE, SUNNYVALE CA 94089
Byron C Scott	director	1310 CHESAPEAKE TERRACE, SUNNYVALE CA 94089
Joshua Levine	officer: President & CEO	1310 CHESAPEAKE TERRACE, SUNNYVALE CA 94089
Mika Nishimura	director	471 EL CAMINO REAL, SANTA CLARA CA 95050
Joseph E Whitters	director
Shigeyuki Hamamatsu	officer: VP, Finance and CAO	1875 CHARLESTON ROAD, MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94043