What is Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings Predictability Rank?
1 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings (Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
10628 Science Center Drive, Suite 250, San Diego, CA, USA, 92121
Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings Inc is an RNA medicines company focused on opportunities in rare diseases with a current focus on liver and respiratory diseases. It operates in the segment of research and development of medical applications for nucleic acid-focused technology. The product pipeline of the company includes LUNAR-OTC, LUNAR-CF, and LUNAR-COV19.
Executives
| Pad Chivukula |
officer: Chief Scientific Officer & COO |
10628 SCIENCE CENTER DRIVE, SUITE 200, SAN DIEGO CA 92121 |
| Keith C Kummerfeld |
officer: See Remarks |
10628 SCIENCE CENTER DRIVE, SUITE 250, SAN DIEGO CA 92121 |
| Magda Marquet |
director |
ALTHEADX INC., 3550 DUNHILL STREET, SAN DIEGO CA 92121 |
| John Markels |
director |
C/O SANGAMO THERAPEUTICS, INC., POINT RICHMOND TECH CTR, 501 CANAL BLVD., RICHMOND CA 94804 |
| Joseph E Payne |
director, 10 percent owner, officer: President and CEO |
10628 SCIENCE CENTER DRIVE, SUITE 200, SAN DIEGO CA 92121 |
| Jing L. Marantz |
director |
C/O KRYSTAL BIOTECH, INC., 2100 WHARTON STREET, SUITE 701, PITTSBURGH PA 15203 |
| Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. |
director, 10 percent owner |
60 LEVERONI COURT, NOVATO CA 94949 |
| Lance Kurata |
officer: Chief Legal Officer |
10628 SCIENCE CENTER DRIVE, SUITE 250, SAN DIEGO CA 92121 |
| Andy Sassine |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
82 DEVONSHIRE STREET, BOSTON MA 02109 |
| Steven George Hughes |
officer: Chief Development Officer |
6275 NANCY RIDGE DRIVE, SAN DIEGO CA 92121 |
| James F Barlow |
director |
2525 DUPONT DR, IRVINE CA 92612 |
| Edward W Holmes |
director |
C/O TULARIK INC, TWO CORP DRIVE SOUTH, SAN FRANCISCO CA 8608257208 |
| Peter C Farrell |
director |
RESMED INC, 14040 DANIELSON STREET, POWAY CA 92064-6857 |
| Karah Herdman Parschauer |
director |
60 LEVERONI COURT, NOVATO CA 94949 |
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