What is Ardelyx Predictability Rank?
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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Ardelyx Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Ardelyx (Ardelyx) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
400 Fifth Avenue, Suite 210, Waltham, MA, USA, 02451
Ardelyx Inc is a biotechnology company focused on the discovery, development, and commercialization of molecule and polymeric therapeutics to treat the gastrointestinal tract and cardiorenal diseases. The company has a proprietary drug discovery and design platform. Its lead product candidate is tenapanor, which aims to reduce the absorption of dietary sodium and phosphorus for the treatment of kidney disease, irritable bowel syndrome with constipation, and hyperphosphatemia in patients with dialysis.
Executives
| David P. Rosenbaum |
officer: Chief Development Officer |
C/O ARDELYX, INC., 34175 ARDENWOOD BLVD, SUITE 100, FREMONT CA 94555 |
| Justin A Renz |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
C/O KARYOPHARM THERAPEUTICS INC., 85 WELLS AVENUE, SECOND FLOOR, NEWTON MA 02459 |
| Elizabeth A Grammer |
officer: See Remarks |
78TH FOURTH AVENUE, WALTHAM MA 02451 |
| Robert Blanks |
officer: See Remarks |
C/O ARDELYX, 34175 ARDENWOOD BLVD., FREMONT CA 94555 |
| Laura A Williams |
officer: Chief Medical Officer |
116 HUNTINGTON AVENUE, 6TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116 |
| Robert Ora Felsch |
officer: See Remarks |
C/O ARDELYX, INC., 34175 ARDENWOOD BLVD., FREMONT CA 94555 |
| Michael Raab |
director, officer: President & CEO |
1119 ST PAUL STREET, BALTIMORE MD 21202 |
| Susan Rodriguez |
officer: Chief Commercial Officer |
C/O ARDELYX, INC., 34175 ARDENWOOD BLVD, SUITE 200, FREMONT CA 94555 |
| David M Mott |
director |
1119 ST. PAUL STREET, BALTIMORE MD 21202 |
| Forest Baskett |
10 percent owner |
|
| Scott D Sandell |
10 percent owner |
|
| Jeffrey W Jacobs |
officer: VP, Chemistry |
C/O ARDELYX, INC., 34175 ARDENWOOD BLVD, SUITE 100, FREMONT CA 94555 |
| Muna Bhanji |
director |
C/O CYTOKINETICS, INCORPORATED, 280 EAST GRAND AVENUE, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080 |
| Keith Santorelli |
officer: See Remarks |
C/O ARDELYX, INC. 34175 ARDENWOOD BLVD, FREMONT CA 94555 |
| Onaiza Cadoret-manier |
director |
2855 GAZELLE COURT, C/O IONIS PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., CARLSBAD CA 92010 |
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