Aerovate Therapeutics (Aerovate Therapeutics) Predictability Rank

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What is Aerovate Therapeutics Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Aerovate Therapeutics Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Aerovate Therapeutics Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Aerovate Therapeutics (Aerovate Therapeutics) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Aerovate Therapeutics Inc (NAS:AVTE) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

930 Winter Street, Suite M-500, Waltham, MA, USA, 02451

Website

https://www.aerovatetx.com

Aerovate Therapeutics Inc is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on developing drugs that improve the lives of patients with rare cardiopulmonary disease. Its initial focus is on advancing AV-101, dry powder inhaled formulation of imatinib for the treatment of pulmonary arterial hypertension, a devastating disease impacting people in the United States and Europe.

Executives

Hunter Gillies	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O AEROVATE THERAPEUTICS, INC., 200 BERKELEY STREET, FLOOR 18, BOSTON MA 02116
Ralph Niven	officer: Chief Development Officer	C/O AEROVATE THERAPEUTICS, INC., 200 BERKELEY STREET, FLOOR 18, BOSTON MA 02116
Benjamin T Dake	officer: See Remarks	C/O AEROVATE THERAPEUTICS, INC., 200 BERKELEY STREET, FLOOR 18, BOSTON MA 02116
Marinus Verwijs	officer: SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT, CMC	C/O AEROVATE THERAPEUTICS, INC., 200 BERKELEY STREET, FLOOR 18, BOSTON MA 02116
Timothy P Noyes	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	1365 MAIN STREET, WALTHAM MA 02451
Habib J Dable	director	C/O ACCELERON PHARMA INC., 128 SIDNEY STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Timothy Pigot	officer: Chief Commercial Officer	AEROVATE THERAPEUTICS, INC., 930 WINTER STREET, SUITE M-500, WALTHAM MA 02451
Donald J Santel	director	4362 24TH STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94114
George A Eldridge	officer: See Remarks	C/O TARGANTA THERAPEUTICS CORPORATION, 222 THIRD STREET SUITE 2300, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Allison Dorval	director	C/O INSULET CORPORATION, 600 TECHNOLOGY PARK DRIVE, SUITE 200, BILLERICA MA 01821
Cormorant Asset Management, Lp	10 percent owner	200 CLARENDON STREET, 52ND FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116
Maha Katabi	director, 10 percent owner	SOFINNOVA INVESTMENTS, 3000 SAND HILL ROAD, 4-250, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Ra Capital Healthcare Fund Lp	director, 10 percent owner	200 BERKELEY STREET, 18TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116
Ra Capital Management, L.p.	director, 10 percent owner	200 BERKELEY STREET, 18TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116
Peter Kolchinsky	director, 10 percent owner	200 BERKELEY STREET, 18TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116