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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks | |
---|---|---|---|
Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% Out of All 2403 Stocks | 3.3% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 76.3% | 100% |
% that are in Loss (10y) | 3% | 10% | 8% | 9% | 11% | 18% | 16% | 45% | 37% |
Average Gain (10y) | 364.6% | 330.9% | 278.0% | 235.1% | 243.5% | 227.8% | 154.8% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
Median Gain (10y) | 238.5% | 193.5% | 171.0% | 159.0% | 132.5% | 113.5% | 87.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
Maximum Gainer | 2228.0% | 2547.0% | 2452.0% | 2852.0% | 2432.0% | 1892.0% | 1807.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
Maximum Loser | -82.0% | -53.0% | -67.0% | -100.0% | -83.0% | -100.0% | -78.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
Annualized Average Gain | 15.4% | 14.6% | 13.2% | 12.0% | 12.2% | 11.7% | 9.1% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
Annualized Median Gain | 12.1% | 10.6% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of ValuationsThank you for viewing the detailed overview of Avantor's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.
Benoit Gourdier | officer: EVP, Biopharma Production | 100 MATSONFORD ROAD, RADNOR PA 19087 |
Steven W Eck | officer: SVP & Chief Accounting Officer | C/O CSS INDUSTRIES, INC., 450 PLYMOUTH ROAD, SUITE 300, PLYMOUTH MEETING PA 19462 |
Frederic Vanderhaegen | officer: EVP, Europe | C/O AVANTOR, INC., 100 MATSONFORD ROAD, RADNOR PA 19087 |
Brittany Hankamer | officer: EVP, Chief HR Officer | 100 MATSONFORD ROAD, RADNOR PA 19087 |
R. Brent Jones | officer: EVP, Chief Financial Officer | C/O PALL CORPORATION, 25 HARBOR PARK DRIVE, PORT WASHINGTON NY 11050 |
Claudius Sokenu | officer: EVP, Chief Legal & Compliance | C/O UNISYS CORPORATION, 801 LAKEVIEW DRIVE, BLUE BELL PA 19422 |
Randy Lee Stone | officer: EVP, Proprietary Products | 974 CENTRE ROAD, CRP 730, WILMINGTON DE 19805 |
Christophe Couturier | officer: See Remarks | 9 FOURTH AVENUE, C/O OVASCIENCE INC., CAMBRIDGE MA 02451 |
Gerard Brophy | officer: EVP, Biopharma Production | C/O AVANTOR, INC., 100 MATSONFORD ROAD, RADNOR PA 19087 |
Kitty Sahin | officer: EVP, Strategy&Corp Development | 100 MATSONFORD ROAD, RADNOR PA 19087 |
Thomas A Szlosek | officer: EVP and CFO | HONEYWELL INTERNATIONAL INC., 115 TABOR ROAD, MORRIS PLAINS NJ 07950 |
Michael Stubblefield | director, officer: President and CEO | C/O AVANTOR, INC., 100 MATSONFORD ROAD, RADNOR PA 19087 |
Rajiv Gupta | director | 234 RAVENCLIFF DRIVE, ST DAVIDS PA 19087 |
Joseph R Massaro | director | 5725 DELPHI DRIVE, TROY MI 48098 |
Mala Murthy | director | C/O TELADOC HEALTH, INC., 2 MANHATTANVILLE ROAD, SUITE 203, PURCHASE NY 10577 |
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