Armstrong World Industries (Armstrong World Industries) Predictability Rank

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What is Armstrong World Industries Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Armstrong World Industries Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Armstrong World Industries (Armstrong World Industries) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Construction » Armstrong World Industries Inc (NYSE:AWI) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

91A:Germany

Address

2500 Columbia Avenue, Lancaster, PA, USA, 17603

Website

https://www.armstrongceilings.com

Armstrong World Industries Inc is engaged in the design, innovation and manufacture of ceiling and wall solutions in the Americas. The products include mineral fiber, fiberglass wool, metal, wood, wood fiber, glass-reinforced-gypsum and felt. The company also manufactures ceiling suspension system (grid) products through a joint venture with Worthington Industries, Inc. called Worthington Armstrong Venture (WAVE).

Executives

Victor Grizzle	director, officer: CEO	2500 COLUMBIA AVE, LANCASTER PA 17604-3001
Monica M. Maheshwari	officer: SVP, Human Resources	2500 COLUMBIA AVENUE, LANCASTER PA 17603
Mark A Hershey	officer: See Remarks	ARMSTRONG WORLD INDUSTRIES, INC., 2500 COLUMBIA AVENUE, LANCASTER PA 17604-3001
Christopher P. Calzaretta	officer: SVP & CFO	2500 COLUMBIA AVENUE, LANCASTER PA 17603
Richard D Holder	director	EATON CENTER, 1111 SUPERIOR AVENUE, CLEVELAND OH 44114
William H Osborne	director	1415 WEST 22ND STREET, SUITE 1100, OAK BROOK IL 60523
Jill A. Crager	officer: SVP Sales Operations	2500 COLUMBIA AVENUE, LANCASTER PA 17603
Dawn M. Kirchner-king	officer: SVP & CIO	2500 COLUMBIA AVENUE, LANCASTER PA 17603
Ellen R. Romano	officer: SVP, Human Resources	C/O 2500 COLUMBIA AVE, LANCASTER PA 17603
Austin So	officer: SVP Gen Cnsl, Compliance	C/O STONEMOR PARTNERS L.P., 3600 HORIZON BOULEVARD, TREVOSE PA 19053
Charles M Chiappone	officer: SVP, Ceiling Solutions	2500 COLUMBIA AVE, LANCASTER PA 17603
James T. Burge	officer: Vice President & Controller	2500 COLUMBIA AVENUE, LANCASTER PA 17603
Stephen F Mcnamara	officer: VP, Controller	C/O ARMSTRONG WORLD INDUSTRIES, INC., PO BOX 3001, LANCASTER PA 17604
Roy W Templin	director	ARMSTRONG WORLD INDUSTRIES, INC., 2500 COLUMBIA AVENUE, LANCASTER PA 17603
Barbara Loughran	director	1999 BRYAN STREET, DALLAS TX 75201