ArrowMark Financial (ArrowMark Financial) Predictability Rank

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What is ArrowMark Financial Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

ArrowMark Financial Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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ArrowMark Financial (ArrowMark Financial) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » ArrowMark Financial Corp (NAS:BANX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

100 Fillmore Street, Suite 325, Denver, CO, USA, 80206

Website

https://www.stonecastle-financial.com

ArrowMark Financial Corp is a non-diversified, closed-end management investment company. Its objective is to provide stockholders with current income, and to a lesser extent capital appreciation. The company's investment in various portfolios such as debt securities, trust preferred securities, preferred shares of credit securitization, preferred securities, convertible preferred stock, exchange-traded fund, limited partnership interest, and money market fund.

Executives

John Scott Emrich	director	C/O DESTRA CAPITAL ADVISORS LLC, 444 WEST LAKE STREET, SUITE 1700, CHICAGO IL 60606-0070
Dana Staggs	officer: President	C/O ARROWMARK FINANCIAL CORP., 340 MADISON AVENUE, 22ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10173
Guy M Arnold	director	518 17TH STREET, STE 1700, DENVER CO 80202
Patrick Joseph Farrell	officer: Chief Financial Officer	152 WEST 57TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10019
Sanjai Bhonsle	director, officer: CEO	C/O STONECASTLE FINANCIAL CORP., 152 WEST 57TH STREET, 35TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Richard Allen Grove	officer: Chief Compliance Officer	518 17TH STREET, 17TH FLOOR, DENVER CO 80202
Michael Stolper	director	C/O STONECASTLE FINANCIAL CORP., 152 WEST 57TH STREET, 35TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Karen Reidy	director	C/O STONECASTLE FINANCIAL CORP., 152 WEST 57TH STREET, 35TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Praag Michael Van	director	C/O STONECASTLE FINANCIAL CORP., 152 WEST 57TH STREET, 35TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
S David Lentinello	officer: Controller	152 WEST 57TH STREET, 35TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Joshua S. Siegel	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer	152 WEST 57TH STREET, 35TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Clara Miller	director	STONECASTLE FINANCIAL CORP, 152 WEST 57TH STREET, 35TH FL., NEW YORK NY 10019
George Shilowitz	director, 10 percent owner, officer: President	152 WEST 57TH STREET, 35TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Emil Henry	director	HENRY, TIGER LLC, 717 5TH AVE, FLOOR 12-A, NEW YORK NY 10022
Rachel Schatten	officer: See Remarks	152 WEST 57TH STREET, 35TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019