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Petrolia Energy (Petrolia Energy) Predictability Rank


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What is Petrolia Energy Predictability Rank?

1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Petrolia Energy Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Petrolia Energy Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Petrolia Energy's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Petrolia Energy (Petrolia Energy) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » Petrolia Energy Corp (OTCPK:BBLS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
MMEX AMNI SPOWF DBRM VBHI WTXR GSPE FECOF ALTX COP HKSE:00883 EOG TSX:CNQ PXD OXY MIC:NVTK HES ASX:WDS DVN FANG
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
710 North Post Oak Road, Suite 400, Houston, TX, USA, 77024
Website
https://www.petroliaenergy.com
Petrolia Energy Corp is an oil exploration, development and production company. It acquire's low risk, conventionally producing oil fields. This allows the company to minimize risk and maximize the recoverability of existing reservoirs. It is focused on acquisitions in the Southwest United States. The company's core assets include Twin Lakes San Andres Unit, Slick Unit Dutcher Sands, Askarii Resources, and Minerva-Rockdale Field.
Executives
Zel C Khan officer: President & CEO 7941 KATY FWY, STE 522, HOUSTON TX 77024
Joel Martin Oppenheim director 2035 SUL ROSS STREET, HOUSTON TX 77098
Mark Merle Allen officer: President 4306 STONECROFT CIRCLE, KATY TX 77450
Richard D Dole director 710 N. POST OAK RD., STE. 512, HOUSTON TX 77024
Ivar Siem director 710 N. POST OAK RD., STE. 512, HOUSTON TX 77024
Horacio Alfredo Fernandez officer: Chief Financial Officer 9531 MEADOWVALE DR., HOUSTON TX 77063
Tariq Nawaz Chaudhary officer: Chief Financial Officer 132 MAGENTA CRESCENT, CHESTERMERE A0 T1X0K9
James Edward Burns director 3322 DESERT INN, MONTGOMERY TX 77356
Quinten Beasley director 416 - 42 STREET SW, CALGARY A0 T3C 1Y3
Paul M Deputy officer: Chief Financial Officer 7842 HIGHLAND FARMS, HOUSTON TX 77095
Lee H Lytton director, officer: Secretary 5804 BABCOCK RD, #400, SAN ANTONIO TX 78240
Leo B Womack director, 10 percent owner 710 N. POST OAK ROAD, SUITE 400, HOUSTON TX 77024
David N Baker 10 percent owner 1020 108TH AVENUE, NE SUITE 1004, BELLEVUE WA 98004
Matthew Robert Ferguson director 11044 RESEARCH BLVD., SUITE A-200, AUSTIN TX 78759
Rick Wilber director, 10 percent owner