BreitBurn Energy Partners LP (BreitBurn Energy Partners LP) Predictability Rank

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What is BreitBurn Energy Partners LP Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

BreitBurn Energy Partners LP Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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BreitBurn Energy Partners LP (BreitBurn Energy Partners LP) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » BreitBurn Energy Partners LP (OTCPK:BBPPQ.PFD) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

Website

http://www.breitburn.com

Breitburn Energy Partners LP is engaged in the oil and gas market. It is an independent oil and gas partnership focused on the acquisition, exploitation, and development of oil, natural gas liquid (NGL) and natural gas properties in the United States. Its midstream assets include transmission and gathering pipelines, gas processing plants, NGL recovery plants, a controlling interest in a salt water disposal company.

Executives

Thomas E Thurmond	officer: Senior Vice President	515 S. FLOWER STREET SUITE 4800, LOS ANGELES CA 90071
Kurt Talbot	director	C/O EIG MANAGEMENT COMPANY, LLC, 1700 PENNSYLVANIA AVE NW, SUITE 800, WASHINGTON NY 20006
Donald D Wolf	director	1670 BROADWAY SUITE 2800, DENVER CO 80202
Walker C Friedman	director	515 SOUTH FLOWER STREET, SUITE 4800, LOS ANGELES CA 90071
Rogers W Yandell Iii	director	801 CHERRY STREET, SUITE 3700, UNIT 19, FORT WORTH TX 76102
David B Kilpatrick	director	35 HARBOR RIDGE DR., SUITE 4800, NEWORT BEACH CA 92660
Gregory J Moroney	director	515 SOUTH FLOWER STREET, SUITE 4800, SUITE 4800, LOS ANGELES CA 90071
Butler John R Jr	director	ANADARKO PETROLEUM CORPORATION, 1201 LAKE ROBBINS DR., THE WOODLANDS CA 77380
Charles S Weiss	director	515 SOUTH FLOWER STREET, SUITE 4800, SUITE 4800, LOS ANGELES CA 90071
Lawrence C Smith	officer: Vice President and Controller	515 SOUTH FLOWER STREET, SUITE 4800, SUITE 4800, LOS ANGELES CA 90071
Chris E Williamson	officer: Senior VP, Western Division	515 SOUTH FLOWER STREET, SUITE 4800, LOS ANGELES CA 90071
Bruce D Mcfarland	officer: VP, Treasurer and Secretary	BREITBURN ENERGY PARTNERS L.P., 515 SOUTH FLOWER STREET, SUITE 4800, LOS ANGELES CA 90071
Willis Jackson Washburn	officer: Senior VP, Business Dev.	C/O BREITBURN ENERGY PARTNERS L.P., 515 SOUTH FLOWER STREET, SUITE 4800, LOS ANGELES CA 90071
Randall Hart Breitenbach	officer: President	BREITBURN ENERGY PARTNERS L.P., 515 SOUTH FLOWER STREET, SUITE 4800, LOS ANGELES CA 90071
Mark L Pease	officer: COO & Executive V.P.	C/O ANADARKO PETROLEUM CORP, 1201 LAKE ROBBINS DR, THE WOODLANDS CA 77380