What is Biolase Predictability Rank?
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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Biolase Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Biolase (Biolase) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
27042 Towne Centre Drive, Suite 270, Lake Forest, CA, USA, 92610
Biolase Inc is a US-based medical device company. It develops, manufactures, markets, and sells laser systems in dentistry and medicine. The company also markets, sells and distributes dental imaging equipment, including cone beam digital x-rays and CAD/CAM intraoral scanners. It offers two categories of laser system products: Waterlase (all-tissue) systems and Diode (soft-tissue) systems which allow dentists, periodontists, endodontists, oral surgeons, and other dental specialists to perform a broad range of minimally invasive dental procedures, including cosmetic, restorative, and complex surgical applications. The majority of the company's revenue comes from the United States.
Executives
| Goldman Sachs & Co. Llc |
10 percent owner |
200 WEST STREET, NEW YORK NY 10282 |
| Goldman Sachs Group Inc |
10 percent owner |
200 WEST STREET, NEW YORK NY 10282 |
| Lord Jonathan T Md |
director |
500 WEST MAIN ST., LOUISVILLE KY 40202 |
| Jennifer Bright |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
27042 TOWNE CENTRE DRIVE,, SUITE 270, FOOTHILL RANCH CA 92610 |
| Steven Sandor |
officer: Chief Operating Officer |
27042 TOWNE CENTRE DRIVE,, SUITE 270, FOOTHILL RANCH CA 92610 |
| Jess Roper |
director |
5555 OBERLIN DRIVE, SAN DIEGO CA 92121 |
| Kenneth P. Yale |
director |
27042 TOWN CENTRE DRIVE, SUITE 270, FOOTHILL RANCH CA 92610 |
| John R Beaver |
director, officer: President & CEO |
C/O STERLING CHEMICALS INC, 1200 SMITH STREET, HOUSTON TX 77002 |
| Kathleen T Oloughlin |
director |
27042 TOWN CENTRE DRIVE, SUITE 270, FOOTHILL RANCH CA 92610 |
| Somerman Martha J. Dds, Phd |
director |
27042 TOWN CENTRE DRIVE, SUITE 270, FOOTHILL RANCH CA 92610 |
| Summerhays Carol Gomez Dds |
director |
27042 TOWN CENTRE DRIVE, SUITE 270, FOOTHILL RANCH CA 92610 |
| Family Foundation Schuler |
10 percent owner |
100 N. FIELD DRIVE, SUITE 360, LAKE FOREST IL 60045 |
| Larry N Feinberg |
10 percent owner |
C/O ORACLE PARTNERS L P, 200 GREENWICH AVENUE, GREENWICH CT 06830 |
| Jack W Schuler |
10 percent owner |
100 N. FIELD DRIVE, SUITE 360, LAKE FOREST IL 60045 |
| Michael Ditolla |
director |
3299 CAMBRIDGE AVE, BRONX NY 10463 |
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