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Bioject Medical Technologies (Bioject Medical Technologies) Predictability Rank


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What is Bioject Medical Technologies Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Bioject Medical Technologies Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Bioject Medical Technologies Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Bioject Medical Technologies's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Bioject Medical Technologies (Bioject Medical Technologies) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Medical Devices & Instruments » Bioject Medical Technologies Inc (OTCPK:BJCT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
SOAN WHSI NURO ECIA UNISQ ASNB DXTR REMI IRSB QTXB GNID PEYE SSKN SKLN VPTDF AKER UEEC NEPH STXS REPR
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
Website
http://www.bioject.com
Bioject Medical Technologies Inc commenced operations in 1985 and is a developer and manufacturer of needle-free injection therapy systems (NFITS). The Companys long-term goal is to become supplier of needle-free injection systems to the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industries. It focused its business development efforts on new and existing licensing and supply agreements with pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies, as well as numerous research agreements that could guide to long-term agreements. The Companys pipeline of prospective new partnerships remains active. It is also actively pursuing additional opportunities both domestically and overseas as it expands its current product line. The Companys Biojector 2000 system (B2000) consists of two components: a hand-held, reusable jet injector and a sterile, single-use, disposable plastic syringe capable of delivering variable doses of medication up to 1.0 mL. Drug Reconstitution System - The needle-free drug reconstitution system allows for the transfer of diluents to reconstitute powdered medications into liquid form and withdrawal of liquid medication into a syringe without the use of a needle. Vitajet - The Vitajet is also composed of two components, a portable injector unit and a disposable syringe. It is smaller and lower in cost than other products in its needle-free offering. ZetaJet - The ZetaJet is Biojects latest advance in needle-free delivery systems. It consists of two components, the portable injector and an auto-disabling disposable syringe. The medical equipment market is very competitive. Bioject Medical Technologies has two patents: Biojector 2000 and Vitajet. The Companys products and manufacturing operations are subject to extensive government regulations, both in the U.S. and abroad. In the U.S., the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) administers the Federal Food, Drug and Cosmetic Act (FFDCA) and has adopted regulations to administer the FFDCA.
Executives
James C Gale director 152 W 57TH STREET, 19TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Sanders Morris Harris Inc/fa 10 percent owner, other: See General Remarks 600 TRAVIS, SUITE 5900, HOUSTON TX 77002
David S Tierney director C/O ABLE LABORATORIES, INC., 6 HOLLYWOOD COURT, CN 1013, SOUTH PLAINFIELD NJ 07080
Edward L Flynn director, 10 percent owner 211 SOMERVILLE ROAD RTE 202N, BEDMINISTER NJ 07921
Life Sciences Opportunities Fund Ii Lp 10 percent owner 152 W 57TH STREET 19TH FLOOR NEW YORK NY 10019
Lof Partners Llc other: See general remarks 152 W 57TH STREET 19TH FLOOR NEW YORK NY 10019
Life Sciences Opportunities Fund Instittutional Ii Lp 10 percent owner 152 W 57TH STREET 19TH FLOOR NEW YORK NY 10019
Randal D Chase director 28 GEORGIA COURT, RICHMOND HILL A6 L4E ON7
Brigid Makes director 20245 SW 95TH AVENUE, TUALATIN OR 97062
J Michael Redmond officer: Sr. VP Bus Dev. 10 CANTERBURY ROAD, WINDHAM NH 03087
Elan Corp Plc 10 percent owner TREASURY BUILDING, LOWER GRAND CANAL STREET, DUBLIN 2 L2 00000
Elan International Services Ltd 10 percent owner C/O TREASURY BUILDING, LOWER GRAND CANAL STREET, DUBLIN L2 2
Elan Pharmaceutical Investments Ltd 10 percent owner 102 ST JAMES COURT, FIETSS SMITH FL BERM D0 9999999999
John P Gandolfo officer: CFO 62 TERRACE ROAD, WAYNE NJ 07470
Grace K Fey director 1210 CROMWELL ROAD, HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA A5 B3H4L2

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