Blue Sphere (Blue Sphere) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 2008. Start your Free Trial

What is Blue Sphere Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Blue Sphere Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Blue Sphere Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Blue Sphere's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Blue Sphere (Blue Sphere) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Utilities » Utilities - Independent Power Producers » Blue Sphere Corp (GREY:BLSP) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

301 McCullough Drive, 4th Floor, Charlotte, NC, USA, 28262

Website

http://www.bluespherecorporate.com

Blue Sphere Corp is an international clean-tech independent power producer that develops, owns and manages waste-to-energy facilities. It focuses on developing or acquiring projects with clean energy technologies, including waste-to-energy facilities that generate clean energy, such as electricity, natural gas, heat, soil amendment and other by-products. Geographically operates the project in the region of United States, Italy, and Israel.

Executives

Yosef Keret	officer: Chief Financial Officer	4 YEHOSHUA BEN NOON ST., HOD HASHARON L3 4523602
Ran Daniel	officer: Chief Financial Officer	101 WEST 90TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10024
Lyron L Bentovim	other: Former Director	60 CUTTER MILL ROAD, GREAT NECK, NEW YORK NY 11021
Lazarus Israel Opportunities Fund Lllp	10 percent owner	C/O IBEX GP LLC, 260 NORTH JOSEPHINE STREET, SUITE 300, DENVER CO 80206
Lazarus Investment Partners Lllp	10 percent owner	C/O IBEX INVESTORS LLC, 260 NORTH JOSEPHINE STREET, SUITE 300, DENVER CO 80206
Justin B Borus	10 percent owner	260 N. JOSEPHINE STREET, SUITE 300, DENVER CO 80206
Lazarus Management Co Llc	10 percent owner	260 N. JOSEPHINE STREET, SUITE 300, DENVER CO 80206
Dr Borenstein Ltd	10 percent owner	18 REINES ST, TEL AVIV L3 00000
Alex Weber	officer: Chief Financial Officer	POB - 961, NARKIS 2, KOHAV YAIR L3 44864