Bimini Capital Management (Bimini Capital Management) Predictability Rank

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What is Bimini Capital Management Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Bimini Capital Management Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Bimini Capital Management (Bimini Capital Management) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » Bimini Capital Management Inc (OTCPK:BMNM) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

3305 Flamingo Drive, Vero Beach, FL, USA, 32963

Website

https://www.biminicapital.com

Bimini Capital Management Inc is a specialty finance company that operates in two reportable segments, The asset management segment includes the investment advisory services provided by Bimini Advisors to Orchid and Royal Palm. The investment portfolio segment includes the investment activities conducted by Royal Palm. The investment portfolio segment receives revenue in the form of interest and dividend income on its investments.

Executives

Robert J Dwyer	director	880 SOUTH OCEAN BOULEVARD, PALM BEACH FL 33480
Robert E Cauley	director, officer: Secretary/Chief Fin. Officer	C/O BIMINI MORTGAGE MANAGEMENT, INC., 3305 FLAMINGO DRIVE, SUITE 100, VERO BEACH FL 32963
Haas G Hunter Iv	officer: EVP, CIO, Interim CFO & Treas	C/O BIMINI CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, INC., 3305 FLAMINGO DRIVE, VERO BEACH FL 32963
Frank E Jaumot	director	190 SE 19TH AVENUE, POMPANO BEACH FL 33060
J Christopher Clifton	officer: EVP, GC, CCO & Sec	C/O BIMINI CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, INC., 3305 FLAMINGO DRIVE, VERO BEACH FL 32963
Jason Kaplan	director, officer: Senior Exec. Vice President	C/O OPTEUM FINANCIAL SERVICES, LLC, W115 CENTURY ROAD, PARAMUS NJ 07652
Peter R Norden	director	C/O OPTEUM FINANCIAL SERVICES, W115 CENTURY ROAD, PARAMUS NJ 07652
Amber K Luedke	officer: Treasurer	C/O BIMINI MORTGAGE MANAGEMENT INC., 3305 FLAMINGO DRIVE, SUITE 100, VERO BEACH FL 32963
Jeffrey J Zimmer	director, officer: Pres./CEO	3001 OCEAN DRIVE, SUITE 201, VERO BEACH FL 32963
Kevin L Bespolka	director	C/O BIMINI MORTGAGE MANAGEMENT, INC., 3305 FLAMINGO DRIVE, SUITE 100, VERO BEACH FL 32963
W Christopher Mortenson	director	C/O BIMINI MORTGAGE MANAGEMENT, INC., 3305 FLAMINGO DRIVE, SUITE 100, VERO BEACH FL 32963
Burford H Ortale	director	C/O BIMINI MORTGAGE MANAGEMENT, INC., 3305 FLAMINGO DRIVE, SUITE 100, VERO BEACH FL 32963
Maureen A Hendricks	director	C/O MILLIPORE CORP, BEDFORD MA 01730