BOK Financial (BOK Financial) Predictability Rank

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What is BOK Financial Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

BOK Financial Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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BOK Financial (BOK Financial) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » BOK Financial Corp (NAS:BOKF) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

BJR:Germany

Address

Boston Avenue at Second Street, P.O. Box 2300, Bank of Oklahoma Tower, Tulsa, OK, USA, 74172

Website

https://www.bokf.com

BOK Financial Corp is the largest financial institution in Oklahoma and it provides a comprehensive range of nationally competitive financial products and services. Its operating segments consist of commercial banking, consumer banking, wealth management, and Funds Management and Other. The company has various products and services including cash management services, loans and deposits, fiduciary and insurance services, mortgage banking and brokerage and trading services. It generates maximum revenue from the commercial banking segment. Its commercial banking segment includes lending, treasury and cash management services, and customer risk management products to small businesses, middle market, and larger commercial customers.

Executives

Douglas D. Hawthorne	director	4425 POTOMAC AVE., DALLAS TX 75205
Steven Bangert	director	1600 BROADWAY, #1500, DENVER CO 80202
Brad A Vincent	officer: EVP - Corporate Banking	C/O FREDERIC DORWART, LAWYERS PLLC, 124 EAST FOURTH STREET, TULSA OK 74103
Martin E Grunst	officer: EVP, Chief Risk Officer	C/O FREDERIC DORWART, LAWYERS PLLC, 124 EAST FOURTH STREET, TULSA OK 74103
Joullian Edward C Iv	director	C/O FREDERIC DORWART, LAWYERS PLLC, 124 E FOURTH STREET, TULSA OK 74103
Mindy M. Mahaney	officer: EVP, Chief Risk Officer	C/O FREDERIC DORWART, LAWYERS PLLC, 124 EAST FOURTH STREET, TULSA OK 74103
Pedro Claudia San	director	300 JOHNNY BENCH DRIVE, OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73104
Ball C Fred Jr	director, officer: Chairman/CEO - Bank of Texas	C/O FREDERIC DORWART, LAWYERS PLLC, 124 E FOURTH STREET, TULSA OK 74103
Marc Maun	officer: President-Bank of Kansas City	C/O FREDERIC DORWART, LAWYERS PLLC, 124 EAST 4TH STREET, TULSA OK 74103
Steven E Nell	officer: Exec. VP and CFO	C/O FREDERIC DORWART, LAWYERS PLLC, 124 E FOURTH STREET, TULSA OK 74103
Norman P Bagwell	officer: CEO - Bank of Texas	C/O FREDERIC DORWART, LAWYERS PLLC, 124 EAST FOURTH STREET, TULSA OK 74103
Steven G Bradshaw	officer: Sr Exec VP-Bank of Oklahoma	C/O FREDERIC DORWART, LAWYERS PLLC, 124 E FOURTH STREET, TULSA OK 74103
Jeffrey A. Reid	officer: EVP, Chief HR Officer	C/O FREDERIC DORWART, LAWYERS PLLC, 124 EAST FOURTH STREET, TULSA OK 74103
Michael J. Rogers	officer: EVP, Chief Accounting Officer	C/O FREDERIC DORWART, LAWYERS PLLC, 124 EAST FOURTH STREET, TULSA OK 74103
James A Dietz	officer: EVP, Chief Credit Officer	C/O FREDERIC DORWART, LAWYERS PLLC, 124 EAST FOURTH STREET, TULSA OK 74103