What is Broadway Financial Predictability Rank?
1 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Broadway Financial Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Broadway Financial (Broadway Financial) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
4601 Wilshire Boulevard, Suite 150, Los Angeles, CA, USA, 90010
Broadway Financial Corp is active in the financial services domain. It is a savings and loan holding company in the United States. The Bank's business consists of deposits from the general public and using such deposits, together with borrowings and other funds, to make mortgage loans secured by residential properties and commercial real estate. Its deposits consist of passbook savings accounts, checking accounts, and negotiable order of withdrawal accounts, money market accounts and fixed-term certificates of deposit.
Executives
| Lashanya Demetrice Washington |
officer: EVP, Chief Credit Officer |
10616 CHERYL TURN, WALDORF MD 20603 |
| Brian E Argrett |
director, officer: President/CEO |
12555 W. JEFFERSON BLVD., LOS ANGELES CA 90066 |
| Thomas Andrew Nida |
officer: EVP, Market Executive |
6445 LUZON AVENUE, N.Q., #517, WASHINGTON DC 20012 |
| Brenda J Battey |
officer: EVP/Chief Financial Officer |
4800 WILSHIRE BOULEVARD, LOS ANGELES CA 90036 |
| Ruth Mccloud |
officer: EVP/COO |
5055 WILSHIRE BOULEVARD, SUITE 500, LOS ANGELES CA 90036 |
| Sonja Sanders Wells |
officer: EVP/E. Commercial Reg. Exec |
540 N STREET SW, UNIT-S-103, WASHINGTON DC 20024 |
| John Frederick Tellenbach |
officer: EVP, West Comm. Reg. Exec. |
26838 INDIAN PEAK RD., RANCHO PALOS VERDES CA 90275 |
| William A Longbrake |
director |
C/O WASHINGTON MUTUAL INC, 1201 THIRD AVE , WMT 1503, SEATTLE WA 98111 |
| John Driver |
director |
13983 ARBOLITOS DRIVE, POWAY CA 92064 |
| City First Enterprises Inc. |
10 percent owner |
1 THOMAS CIRCLE NW, STE 700, WASHINGTON DC 20005 |
| Mary Ann Donovan |
director |
513 7TH STREET NE, WASHINGTON DC 20002 |
| David J. Mcgrady |
director |
1132 23RD AVENUE E., SEATTLE WA 98112 |
| Shannan Alicia Herbert |
officer: EVP/Chief Credit Officer |
10104 RUNNING BROOK LANE, UPPER MARLBORO MD 20772 |
| Marie C Johns |
director |
WLR FOODS INC, P O BOX 7000, BROADWAY VA 22815 |
| Jack T Thompson |
director |
100 JERICHO QUADRANGLE, SUITE 100, JERICHO NY 11753 |
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