CACI International (CACI International) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 1979. Start your Free Trial

What is CACI International Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

CACI International Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

CACI International Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of CACI International's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

CACI International (CACI International) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » CACI International Inc (NYSE:CACI) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

CA8A:Germany

Address

12021 Sunset Hills Road, Reston, VA, USA, 20190

Website

https://www.caci.com

CACI International Inc is an information solutions and services provider, offering a variety of information solutions and services to its customers. The company's primary customers are agencies and departments of the U.S. government, which account for the vast majority of the firm's revenue. It provides information solutions and services supporting national security missions and government modernization/transformation for intelligence, defense, and federal civilian customers. The firm conducts its operations through a variety of subsidiaries in the United States and Europe.

Executives

Debora A Plunkett	director	6501 LEGACY DRIVE, PLANO TX 75024
Eric Blazer	officer: SVP, Corp. Controller & CAO	12021 SUNSET HILLS ROAD, RESTON VA 20190
Gregory G Johnson	director	1100 N. GLEBE ROAD, ARLINGTON VA 22201
Stanton D Sloane	director	COMTECH TELECOMMUNICATIONS CORP., 68 SOUTH SERVICE RD., SUITE 230, MELVILLE NY 11747
William L Jews	director	C/O FORTRESS INTERNATIONAL GROUP, INC., 7226 LEE DEFOREST DRIVE, SUITE 203, COLUMBIA, MD 21046
Lisa S Disbrow	director	50 MINUTEMAN ROAD, ANDOVER MA 01810
Gregory R Bradford	officer: Chief Executive, CACI Limited	1100 N GLEBE ROAD, ARLINGTON VA 22201
William S Wallace	director	1100 N. GLEBE ROAD, ARLINGTON VA 22201
James L Pavitt	director	1100 N. GLEBE ROAD, ARLINGTON VA 22201
Jeffrey D Maclauchlan	officer: Chief Financial Officer	400 COLLINS ROAD NE, M/S 124-323, CEDAR RAPIDS IA 52498
Thomas A Mutryn	officer: Acting CFO & Treasurer	CACI INTERNATIONAL INC., 1100 NORTH GLEBE ROAD, ARLINGTON VA 22201
Deette Gray	officer: President, US Operations	1100 N. GLEBE ROAD, ARLINGTON VA 22201
Philip O Nolan	director	15052 CONFERENCE CENTER DRIVE, CHANTILLY VA 20151
Ryan D Mccarthy	director	12021 SUNSET HILLS ROAD, RESTON VA 20190
Warren R Phillips	director	1100 N GLEBE ROAD, ARLINGTON VA 22201