CBAK Energy Technology (CBAK Energy Technology) Predictability Rank

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What is CBAK Energy Technology Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

CBAK Energy Technology Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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CBAK Energy Technology (CBAK Energy Technology) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Industrial Products » CBAK Energy Technology Inc (NAS:CBAT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

B6JA:Germany

Address

CBAK Industrial Park, Meigui Street, Huayuankou Economic Zone, Liaoning Province, Dalian, CHN, 116450

Website

https://www.cbak.com.cn

CBAK Energy Technology Inc is engaged in the manufacture, commercialization, and distribution of a variety of standard and customized lithium-ion high-power rechargeable batteries which are mainly used in electric vehicles, light electric vehicles, electric tools, energy storage, uninterruptible power supply, and other high power applications. The company manufactures five types of Li-ion rechargeable batteries namely aluminum-case cells, battery packs, cylindrical cells, lithium polymer cells, and high-power lithium battery cells. Geographically, it generates a majority of its revenue from Mainland China and also has an operation in Europe, the United States, Korea, and Other Countries.

Executives

Jiewei Li	officer: CFO	CBAK INDUSTRIAL PARK, MEIGUI STREET, HUAYUANKOU ECONOMIC ZONE, DALIAN CITY, LIAONING PROVINCE F4 116450
Yunfei Li	director, 10 percent owner, officer: CEO	BAK INDUSTRIAL PARK, MEIGUI STREET, HUAYUANKOU ECONOMIC ZONE, DALIAN F4 116422
Xiangyu Pei	director	BAK INDUSTRIAL PARK, MEIGUI STREET, HUAYUANKOU ECONOMIC ZONE, DALIAN F4 116450
Asia Evk New Energy Auto Ltd	10 percent owner	FLAT/RM B, 8/F, WING ON CHEONG BLDG, 5 WING LOK STREET, CENTRAL, HONG KONG K3 0000000
Ping Shen	10 percent owner	GROUP 1 LIVESTOCK RANCH, HUAIJIA TOWN, YUSHU CITY, JILIN PROVINCE F4 130416
Dawei Li	10 percent owner	NO. 11 MEIGUI STREET (EAST), HUAYUANKOU ECONOMIC DISTRICT, DALIAN F4 116450
Mu Li	10 percent owner	A-3003, PENGDUDASHA, NANGUANG ROAD, NANSHAN DISTRICT, SHENZHEN F4 518054
Wei Qi	10 percent owner	3-B1005, HUAYUAN, TIANJIAN XIANDAICHENG, LONGGANG DISTRICT, SHENZHEN F4 518000
Xiangqian Li	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chairman, President & CEO	BAK INDUSTRIAL PAR, NO. 1 BAK STREET, KUICHONG TOWN, LONGGANG DISTRICT, SHENZHEN F4 518119
J. Simon Xue	director	3353 ROBERT BURNS DRIVE, RICHFIELD OH 44286
Chunzhi Zhang	director	ROOM 1505, BLOCK B TAIRAN 9TH ROAD, CHENGONGMIAO, FUTIAN DISTRICT, SHENZHEN F4 518000
Wenwu Wang	officer: Interim CFO and Treasurer	BAK INDUSTRIAL PARK, MEIGUI STREET, HUAYUANKOU ECONOMIC ZONE, DALIAN F4 116422
Guosheng Wang	director	BAK INDUSTRIAL PARK, NO, 1 BAK STREET, KUICHONG TOWN, LONGGANG DISTRICT, SHENZHEN F4 518119
Jian Lin	officer: Int. Chief Technical Officer	BAK INDUSTRIAL PARK, NO, 1 BAK STREET, KUICHONG TOWN, LONGGANG DISTRICT, SHENZHEN F4 518119
Jianjun He	director	THT INDUSTRIAL PARK, NO. 5 NANHUAN ROAD, TIEXI DISTRICT, SIPING F4 136000