Cidara Therapeutics (Cidara Therapeutics) Predictability Rank

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What is Cidara Therapeutics Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Cidara Therapeutics Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Cidara Therapeutics (Cidara Therapeutics) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Cidara Therapeutics Inc (NAS:CDTX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

20D:Germany

Address

6310 Nancy Ridge Drive, Suite 101, San Diego, CA, USA, 92121

Website

https://www.cidara.com

Cidara Therapeutics Inc is a biotechnology company. It is focused on the discovery, development, and commercialization of novel anti-infectives for the treatment and prevention of diseases. The company's Rezafungin is a novel molecule in the echinocandin class of antifungals. It is developing rezafungin for the first-line treatment and prevention of serious, invasive fungal infections which are associated with high mortality rates. Its other product candidates include CD377, CD388, RSV AVC, HIV AVC, and SARS-CoV-2 AVC.

Executives

Leslie Tari	officer: Chief Scientific Officer	C/O CIDARA THERAPEUTICS, INC., 6310 NANCY RIDGE DR SUITE 101, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Taylor Sandison	officer: Chief Medical Officer	6310 NANCY RIDGE DRIVE, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Jeffrey Stein	director, officer: President & CEO	6310 NANCY RIDGE DRIVE, SUITE 101, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Shane Ward	officer: CHIEF LEGAL OFFICER	C/O VERSARTIS, INC., 4200 BOHANNON DR., SUITE 250, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Preetam Shah	officer: CFO & CBO	C/O BRAINSTORM CELL THERAPEUTICS, INC., 1325 AVENUE OF AMERICAS, 28TH FLR., NEW YORK NY 10019
Paul Daruwala	officer: Chief Medical Officer	6310 NANCY RIDGE DR, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Brady Johnson	officer: Dir. of Finance & Controller	6310 NANCY RIDGE DRIVE, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Timothy R Franson	director	320 WAKARA WAY, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84108
Carin Canale-theakston	director	C/O CIDARA THERAPEUTICS, INC., 6310 NANCY RIDGE DR STE 101 CA 92121
Bonnie L Bassler	director	REGENERON PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 777 OLD SAW MILL RIVER ROAD, TARRYTOWN NY 10591
James E. Levine	officer: Chief Financial Officer	55 CAMBRIDGE PARKWAY, 8TH FLOOR, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Theodore R Schroeder	director	12481 HIGH BLUFF DRIVE, SUITE 200, SAN DIEGO CA 92130
Chrysa Mineo	director	10835 ROAD TO THE CURE, SUITE 205, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
David L Gollaher	director	6310 NANCY RIDGE DR, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Daniel D Burgess	director	C/O HOLLIS-EDEN PHARMACEUTICALS, 4435 EASTGATE MALL STE.400, SAN DIEGO CA 92121