Cingulate (Cingulate) Predictability Rank

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What is Cingulate Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Cingulate Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Cingulate (Cingulate) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Cingulate Inc (NAS:CING) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

1901 W. 47th Place, Kansas, KS, USA, 66205

Website

https://www.cingulate.com

Cingulate Inc is a clinical stage biopharmaceutical company utilizing its proprietary precision timed release drug delivery platform to build and advance a pipeline of next-generation pharmaceutical products designed to improve the lives of patients suffering from frequently diagnosed conditions characterized by burdensome daily dosing regimens and suboptimal treatment outcomes.

Executives

Jennifer L. Callahan	officer: Corporate Controller	C/O CINGULATE INC., 1901 W. 47TH PLACE, KANSAS CITY KS 66205
Peter J. Werth	director, 10 percent owner	C/O CINGULATE INC., 1901 W. 47TH PLACE, KANSAS CITY KS 66205
Shane J. Schaffer	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O CINGULATE INC., 1901 W. 47TH PLACE, KANSAS CITY KS 66205
Craig S. Gilgallon	officer: EVP & General Counsel	C/O CINGULATE INC., 1901 W. 47TH PLACE, KANSAS CITY KS 66205
Laurie Myers	officer: EVP & Chief Operating Officer	C/O CINGULATE INC., 1901 W. 47TH PLACE, KANSAS CITY KS 66205
Gregg Wm Givens	director	C/O CINGULATE INC., 1901 W. 47TH PLACE, KANSAS CITY KS 66205
Scott Applebaum	director	C/O TREVENA INC., 955 CHESTERBROOK BOULEVARD, SUITE 110, CHESTERBROOK PA 19087
Curtis Medeiros	director	2120 COLORADO AVE., SUITE 230, SANTA MONICA CA 90404
Van Horn Louis G	officer: EVP & Chief Financial Officer	C/O CINGULATE THERAPEUTICS, 1901 W. 47TH PLACE, THIRD FLOOR, KANSAS CITY KS 66205
Patrick Joseph Gallagher	director	275 PLEASANT HILL RD., FLANDERS NJ 07836
Jeffrey X Conroy	director	2372 MORSE AVE, IRVINE CA 92614
Thomas Jeffrey Hargroves	director	C/O CINGULATE INC., 1901 W. 47TH PLACE, KANSAS CITY KS 66205
Raul R. Silva	officer: EVP & Chief Science Officer	C/O CINGULATE INC., 1901 W. 47TH PLACE, KANSAS CITY KS 66205
Matthew Brams	officer: EVP & Chief Medical Officer	C/O CINGULATE INC., 1901 W. 47TH PLACE, KANSAS CITY KS 66205
Fountainhead Shrugged, Llc	10 percent owner	1901 W. 47TH PLACE, #310, KANSAS CITY KS 66205