What is C&J Energy Services Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
C&J Energy Services Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
C&J Energy Services (C&J Energy Services) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
3990 Rogerdale Road, Houston, TX, USA, 77042
C&J Energy Services is an oil and gas equipment and services company operating in North America. The company provides oilfield and rig services to upstream exploration and production companies. Its three main business segments are completion services, well construction and intervention services, and well support services. Completion services generate most of the company's revenue and include fracturing services and cased-hole wireline and pumping services. The well construction and intervention services segment consists of cementing and coiled tubing services. The company's well support services segment includes rig services, fluid management services, and other special well site services. The company generates most of its revenue in the United States.
Executives
| Sterling Renshaw |
officer: See Remarks |
3990 ROGERDALE RD., HOUSTON TX 77042 |
| John J Kennedy |
director |
C/O EDGEN GROUP INC., 18444 HIGHLAND ROAD, BATON ROUGE LA 70809 |
| Michael Roemer |
director |
10375 RICHMOND AVENUE, SUITE 2000, HOUSTON TX 77042 |
| Patrick M Murray |
director |
1177 ENCLAVE PARKWAY, SUITE 300, HOUSTON TX 77077 |
| Steven L Mueller |
director |
|
| William D. Driver |
officer: See Remarks |
10375 RICHMOND AVENUE, SUITE 2000, HOUSTON TX 77042 |
| Michael S Galvan |
officer: See Remarks |
3990 ROGERDALE RD., HOUSTON TX 77042 |
| Van Gaalen Jan Kees |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
10205 WESTHEIMER, SUITE 1000, HOUSTON TX 77042 |
| Danielle E. Hunter |
officer: See Remarks |
3990 ROGERDALE RD., HOUSTON TX 77042 |
| Amy H Nelson |
director |
2000 POST OAK BLVD., SUITE 100, HOUSTON TX 77056 |
| Stuart M Brightman |
director |
25025 INTERSTATE 45 NORTH, SUITE 600, THE WOODLANDS TX 77380 |
| Solus Alternative Asset Management Lp |
10 percent owner |
25 MAPLE STREET, 2ND FLOOR, SUMMIT NJ 07901 |
| Christopher Pucillo |
10 percent owner |
C/O SOLUS ALTERNATIVE ASSET MANAGEMENT, 25 MAPLE STREET, 2ND FLOOR, SUMMIT NJ 07901 |
| Solus Gp Llc |
10 percent owner |
C/O SOLUS ALTERNATIVE ASSET MANAGEMENT, 25 MAPLE STREET, 2ND FLOOR, SUMMIT NJ 07901 |
| Stephen A Schwarzman |
10 percent owner |
C/O BLACKSTONE INC., 345 PARK AVE, NEW YORK NY 10154 |
Quick Browse
Personalize
Premium Gurus 
Create New Portfolio
Portfolio Contest
CJ has been successfully added to your