Celldex Therapeutics (Celldex Therapeutics) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 1990. Start your Free Trial

What is Celldex Therapeutics Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Celldex Therapeutics Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Celldex Therapeutics Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Celldex Therapeutics's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Celldex Therapeutics (Celldex Therapeutics) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Celldex Therapeutics Inc (NAS:CLDX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

TCE2:Germany

Address

53 Frontage Road, Suite 220, Perryville III Building, Hampton, NJ, USA, 08827

Website

https://www.celldex.com

Celldex Therapeutics Inc is a biopharmaceutical company. It is focused on the development and commercialization of several immunotherapy technologies and other cancer-targeting biologics. The company is also engaged in clinical trials for products targeting breast cancer, metastatic melanoma, lung cancer, solid tumors, and ovarian cancer. Its pipeline products are Varlilumab, CDX-301, CDX-1140,CDX-0159/Anti-KIT Program, and CDX-527.

Executives

Garry Arthur Neil	director	555 CALIFORNIA STREET, SUITE 365, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Cheryl Cohen	director	C/O MEDIVATION, INC., 201 SPEAR ST., 3RD FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Rita Jain	director	C/O AKEBIA THERAPEUTICS, INC., 245 FIRST STREET, SUITE 1100, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Tibor Keler	officer: Sen. VP & Ch Scientific Off.	30 PARK ROAD, OTTSVILLE PA 18942
Sarah Cavanaugh	officer: SVP of Corp. Affairs & Admin.	C/O CELLDEX THERAPEUTICS, INC., 53 FRONTAGE ROAD, SUITE 220, HAMPTON NJ 08827
Diane C. Young	officer: SVP, Chief Medical Officer	175 TOYOTA PLAZA, 7TH FLOOR, MEMPHIS TN 38103
Anthony S Marucci	director, officer: President and CEO	66 COLD HILL DRIVE, MENDAHM NJ 07945
Richard M. Wright	officer: Sr. VP & CCO	C/O CELLDEX THERAPEUTICS, INC., 53 FRONTAGE ROAD, SUITE 220, HAMPTON NJ 08827
Samuel Bates Martin	officer: SVP and CFO	C/O CELLDEX THERAPEUTICS, INC., 53 FRONTAGE ROAD, SUITE 220, HAMPTON NJ 08827
Margo Heath-chiozzi	officer: SVP of of Regulatory Affairs	C/O CELLDEX THERAPEUTICS, INC., 53 FRONTAGE ROAD, SUITE 220, HAMPTON NJ 08827
Elizabeth Crowley	officer: SVP, Chief Product Dev Officer	C/O CELLDEX THERAPEUTICS, INC., 53 FRONTAGE ROAD, SUITE 220, HAMPTON NJ 08827
Freddy A. Jimenez	officer: SVP & General Counsel	C/O CELLDEX THERAPEUTICS, INC., 53 FRONTAGE ROAD, SUITE 220, HAMPTON NJ 08827
James J Marino	director	C/O ONCONOVA THERAPEUTICS, 375 PHEASANT RUN, NEWTOWN PA 18940
Keith L Brownlie	director	777 OLD SAW MILL RIVER RD, TARRYTOWN NY 10591
Gerald Phd Mcmahon	director	300 ELLIOTT AVENUE WEST, SUITE 500, SEATTLE WA 98119-4114