CoreLogic (CoreLogic) Predictability Rank

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What is CoreLogic Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

CoreLogic Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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CoreLogic (CoreLogic) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » CoreLogic Inc (NYSE:CLGX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

40 Pacifica, Suite 900, Irvine, CA, USA, 92618

Website

https://www.corelogic.com

CoreLogic Inc is a provider of data and analytics for the real estate sector. It operates in two segments: Property Intelligence & Risk Management Solutions and Underwriting & Workflow Solutions. The company offers a national database of property and mortgage information, judgments and liens, building and replacement costs, parcel and geospatial data, criminal background records, eviction information, nonprime lending records, credit information, and tax information. The database includes historical property transactions and mortgage applications and covers nearly all U.S. residential and commercial properties. Corelogic also provides analytics services and tools built around its database for use of property valuation and credit and risk management.

Executives

Patrick L Dodd	officer: Chief Operating & Growth Off.	40 PACIFICA SUITE 900 SUITE 900 IRVINE CA 92618
Francis Aaron Henry	officer: CLO & Corporate Secretary	2828 NORTH HARWOOD STREET, 15TH FLOOR, DALLAS TX 75201
J David Chatham	director	5780 WINDWARD PARKWAY SUITE 300, ALPHARETTA GA 30005
Thomas C Obrien	director	850 E ALGONQUIN RD, STE 100, SCHAUMGURG IL 60173
John C Dorman	director	C/O LOANDEPOT, INC. ATTN GENERAL COUNSEL, 26642 TOWNE CENTRE DRIVE, FOOTHILL RANCH CA 90402
Douglas C Curling	director	1000 ALDERMAN DRIVE, ALPHARETTA GA 30005
John K Stumpf	officer: Executive, Controller & CAO
Barry M Sando	officer: Managing Director	4 FIRST AMERICAN WAY SANTA ANA CA 92708
James L Balas	officer: Chief Financial Officer	CORELOGIC, INC. 40 PACIFICA, SUITE 900 IRVINE CA 92618
Vikrant Raina	director	CORELOGIC, INC. 40 PACIFICA, SUITE 900 IRVINE CA 92618
Paul F Folino	director	ONE ENTERPRISE, ALISO VIEJO CA 92656
Frank Martell	director, officer: President & CEO	10 GASTON FARMS ROAD, GREENWICH CT 06831
Pamela H. Patenaude	director	26642 TOWNE CENTRE DRIVE, C/O LOANDEPOT, INC., FOOTHILL RANCH CA 92610
Michael Shepherd	director	567 HALE STREET, PALO ALTO CA 94301
Jaynie M Studenmund	director	506 SECOND AVENUE, 9TH FLOOR, SEATTLE WA 98104