What is Core Molding Technologies Predictability Rank?
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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Core Molding Technologies Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Core Molding Technologies (Core Molding Technologies) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
800 Manor Park Drive, Columbus, OH, USA, 43228-0183
Core Molding Technologies Inc operates in the engineered materials market as one operating segment as a molder of thermoplastic and thermoset structural products. It produces and sells molded products for varied markets, including medium and heavy-duty trucks, automobiles, power sports, construction and agriculture, building products, and other industrial markets. The processes include compression molding of sheet molding compound (SMC), resin transfer molding (RTM), liquid molding of dicyclopentadiene (DCPD), spray-up and hand-lay-up, direct long-fiber thermoplastics (D-LFT) and structural foam, and structural web injection molding (SIM). It operates in Columbus, Ohio, Columbus, and Batavia, Ohio; Gaffney, South Carolina; Winona, Minnesota; Matamoros and others.
Executives
| John P Zimmer |
officer: VP, Treasurer, Secretary & CFO |
800 MANOR PARK DRIVE, COLUMBUS OH 43228 |
| Renee R Anderson |
officer: EVP, Human Resources |
800 MANOR PARK DR, COLUMBUS OH 43228 |
| Eric Palomaki |
officer: Vice President of Operations |
800 MANOR PARK DRIVE, COLUMBUS OH 43228 |
| David L. Duvall |
director, officer: Chief Executive Officer |
800 MANOR PARK DRIVE, COLUMBUS OH 43228 |
| Thomas R Cellitti |
director |
493 S KENILWORTH AVENUE, ELMHURST IL 60126 |
| Ralph O Hellmold |
director |
|
| Matthew Jauchius |
director |
800 MANOR PARK DRIVE, COLUMBUS OH 43228 |
| James C Highfield |
officer: EVP, Sales and Marketing |
800 MANOR PARK DRIVE, COLUMBUS OH 43228 |
| Andrew O Smith |
director |
800 MANOR PARK DRIVE, COLUMBUS OH 43228 |
| James F Crowley |
director |
|
| Sandra Lee Kowaleski |
director |
800 MANOR PARK DRIVE, COLUMBUS OH 43228 |
| James L Simonton |
director |
|
| Robert P Price |
officer: Vice President of Operations |
800 MANOR PARK DRIVE, COLUMBUS OH 43228 |
| Terrence James O'donovan |
officer: VP, Marketing and Sales |
800 MANOR PARK DRIVE, COLUMBUS OH 43228 |
| Kevin L Barnett |
director, officer: President and CEO |
|
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