Cleco (CNL) Predictability Rank

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What is Cleco Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Cleco Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Cleco (CNL) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Utilities » Utilities - Regulated » Cleco Corp (NYSE:CNL) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

Website

http://www.cleco.com

Cleco Corp was incorporated on October 30, 1998, under the laws of the State of Louisiana. It is a public utility holding company that owns a vertically integrated electric utility, Cleco Power, which is engaged in the generation, transmission, distribution and sale of electricity primarily in Louisiana.

Executives

Scott Peter M Iii	director	P O BOX 1551, RALEIGH NC 27601
Shelley Jr Stewart	director	9 ROSZEL ROAD, PRINCETON NJ 08540
Vicky A Bailey	director	2099 PENNSYLVANIA AVNUE, NW, SUITE 1000, WASHINGTON DC 20006
William L Marks	director	PINEVILLE GENERAL OFFICE, 2030 DONAHUE FERRY RD PO BOX 5000, PINEVILLE LA 71361-5000
Logan W Kruger	director	C/O CENTURY ALUMINUM COMPANY, 2511 GARDEN ROAD, BUILDING A, SUITE 200, MONTEREY CA 93940
Bruce A Williamson	director, officer: President & CEO	C/O SOUTHCROSS ENERGY PARTNERS, L.P., 1717 MAIN STREET, SUITE 5200, DALLAS TX 75201
Thomas R Miller	officer: SVP - CFO & Treasurer	2030 DONAHUE FERRY ROAD, PINEVILLE LA 71360
Michael Madison	other: Former President & CEO	PO BOX 5000, PINEVILLE LA 71361-5000
Richard B Crowell	director	PINEVILLE GENERAL OFFICE, 2030 DONAHUE FERRY RD PO BOX 5000, PINEVILLE LA 71361-5000
Bear Stearns & Co Inc /ny/	10 percent owner	115 SOUTH JEFFERSON RD, WHIPPANY NJ 07981
Bear Stearns Companies Inc	10 percent owner	ONE METROTECH NORTH, 9TH FL., BROOKLYN NY 11201