Cohen & Steers (Cohen & Steers) Predictability Rank

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What is Cohen & Steers Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Cohen & Steers Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Cohen & Steers (Cohen & Steers) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » Cohen & Steers Inc (NYSE:CNS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

FG9:Germany

Address

280 Park Avenue, 10th Floor, New York, NY, USA, 10017

Website

https://www.cohenandsteers.com

Cohen & Steers is a niche asset manager concentrating on real estate securities. The firm invests mainly in the equity shares of real estate investment trusts, with holdings in domestic and international real estate securities accounting for close to two thirds of its $75.2 billion in managed assets at the end of September 2023. Cohen & Steers also manages portfolios dedicated to preferred securities, utilities stocks, and other high-yield offerings. The firm's distribution is balanced among its closed-end funds, open-end funds, and institutional accounts. During the past four calendar quarters, the company garnered 41% (26%) of its managed assets (base management fees) from institutional clients, 45% (53%) from open-end funds, and 14% (21%) from closed-end funds.

Executives

Elena Dulik	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	280 PARK AVE, 10TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017
Richard P Simon	director	COHEN & STEERS, INC., 280 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10017
Brandon Brown	officer: Executive Vice President	280 PARK AVENUE, 10TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017
Martin Cohen	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Executive Chairman	C/O COHEN & STEERS, INC., 280 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10017
Alicia Dee	officer: Executive Vice President	280 PARK AVE, 10TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017
Michele Nolty	officer: Executive Vice President	C/O COHEN & STEERS, INC., 280 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10017
Francis C Poli	officer: See Remarks	280 PARK AVENUE, 10TH FLOOR, C/O COHEN & STEERS, NEW YORK NY 10017
Matthew S. Stadler	officer: Chief Financial Officer, EVP	C/O COHEN & STEERS, INC., 280 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10017
John Todd Glickson	officer: Senior Vice President	280 PARK AVE, 10TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017
Dasha Smith	director	C/O COHEN & STEERS, INC., 280 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10017
Daniel P Charles	officer: Executive Vice President	C/O COHEN & STEERS, INC., NEW YORK NY 10017
Jon Cheigh	officer: Executive Vice President	C/O COHEN & STEERS, INC., 280 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10017
Edmond D Villani	director	COHEN & STEERS, INC., 280 PARK AVENUE, 10TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017
Peter L Rhein	director
Reena Aggarwal	director	C/O COHEN & STEERS, INC., 280 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10017